1. News Front
Interest rate hike expectations reversed (significant positive factor): Market data shows that the probability of an interest rate hike in April has plummeted to 4.1%. The release of macro pressure has led to a retreat in the US dollar index, providing an excellent rebound window for BTC.
On-chain large holder behavior (bullish): Monitoring shows that the trading volume near 65000 has been extremely high recently, with some whale addresses showing signs of accumulation rather than further selling.
The overall sentiment is bullish. The market has shifted from extreme panic to weak recovery, with confidence on the rise.
2. Technical Analysis
Current price: Approximately 67700
Moving Average System (MA):
MA24 (66765) and MA52 (66706) have completed a low-level golden cross. The price has successfully broken through the previous narrow range of fluctuations, stabilizing above the short-term moving average. The upper pressure directly points to MA120 (67930), which is a critical watershed for short-term bullish and bearish transitions.
Bollinger Bands
The 1-hour Bollinger Bands are opening upwards, and the price is challenging the upper band (67861). If it can break through and stabilize, it will completely reverse the previous downward inertia.
Current pattern: Presenting a typical intermediate rebound after a low-level V reversal, with bullish energy being released.
Entry/Increase Position
Retracement entry: If the price retraces to 66800 - 67000 without breaking down, it is a good entry opportunity for long positions.
Breakout entry: If the 1-hour closing price breaks through 68000 with volume, a short-term long position can be pursued to 69500.
Take profit levels: First target 68800, second target 70500.
Stop loss level: Strictly set at 66300 (if it drops back below the moving average, it indicates that the rebound has failed).
Risk Warning
Maximum risk point: Induction risk. Although the interest rate hike expectations are positive, there is heavy resistance above 68000. If there is “volume stagnation” at this level, it is necessary to be wary of the main force using good news for a final “trap” wash.
Response plan: Strictly implement a trailing stop loss. Once profits exceed 500 points, immediately move the stop loss point to the cost price.
Cannot hold position location: If the price breaks below 65000 again, long positions must exit unconditionally, which means that a deep pit at 61000 may be ahead.
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