What to know : Bitcoin remains stuck near $67,000 in a broader downtrend, with low volatility and muted futures activity signaling lack of conviction. Derivatives show growing bearish positioning: negative funding, rising Solana open interest, and puts trading above calls. Altcoins, especially DeFi and AI tokens, are outperforming, a typical sign of consolidation that often fades when bitcoin breaks direction.
The crypto market continued to exhibit signs of choppiness on Friday, with bitcoin trading at $67,000 in the middle of a trading range that spans back to early February.
A selection of altcoins picked up during the lower liquidity Asia hours, prompting the likes of ALGO and RENDER to post double-digit gains over the past 24 hours.
But the wider picture remains the same; the crypto market is trading in a macro downtrend dating back to October, characterized by a series of lower highs nad lower lows.
U.S. equities trade flat on Friday as volatility continues to cool since Donald Trump's comments about a potential end to the war in Iran on Monday.
Brent crude oil is trading at $109 a barrel, indicating that an end to the war is perhaps not as close as some analysts are predicting.
Derivatives Positioning
- Futures markets for Bitcoin and Ethereum remained subdued, with the extended holiday weekend keeping trading volumes thin. Open interest in both assets was largely unchanged over the past 24 hours.
- Open interest in Solana futures has climbed to over 65 million SOL, its highest level since Feb. 7. The increase, combined with negative funding rates and an OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta, suggests traders are increasingly positioning for downside, with short sellers showing greater conviction.
- Similar bearish market dynamics are present TRX and BCH.
- OI in Privacy-focused Zcash (ZEC) futures have steadied near 1.70 million ZEC for the third straight day. ZEC's CVD is also the highest among majors. This combination suggests sustained positioning with strong directional conviction, likely driven by aggressive buying pressure.
- Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index has declined to 51.28%, the lowest since Feb. The market shows no signs of panic whatsoever despite geopolitical concerns and energy market volatility.
- Ether's volatility index has slipped to 72.55%, the lowest since Feb. 26.
- On Deribit, bitcoin and ether puts continue to trade pricier than calls, indicating a bias for downside protection.
- Glassnode said that the dealer gamma exposure below $68,000, all the way down to $50,000 is negative. This means that dealers could sell in a falling market to hedge their exposure, adding to downside volatility.
Token talk
- The altcoin market has been relatively resilient to crypto's choppy behavior this week, certain portions of the market have outperformed bitcoin and crypto majors, particularly DeFi and AI tokens.
- The DeFi Select Index (DFX) is up by 1.3% since midnight UTC, while the CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS) rose by 1.5%, beating the bitcoin-heavy benchmarks likes the CoinDesk 20 (CD20), which is up by just 0.16% on Friday.
- The outperformance of certain altcoins is symptomatic of a consolidating market. When bitcoin and the majors trade flat, traders often speculate on lower liquidity altcoins. That speculation typically grinds to a halt when bitcoin is back deciding the next major market move.
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