Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.31 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.1%, totaling $1.34 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $316.7 billion, increasing by 0.47% over the last 7 days, with USDT accounting for 58.06%.
CoinMarketCap shows that among the top 200 projects, most have fallen while a few have risen, including: BTC with a 7-day drop of 1.88%, ETH with a 7-day increase of 0.58%, SOL with a 7-day drop of 7.05%, M with a 7-day increase of 24.04%, and ALGO with a 7-day increase of 42.97%.
This week, the net inflow for U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $22.4 million; the net outflow for U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs was $42.1 million.
Market Forecast (April 6 - April 12):
RSI index is at 51.25 (neutral, higher than last week), fear and greed index is at 10 (extreme fear), and altcoin season index is at 43 (neutral).
BTC: $62,000-72,000 (if $60,000 breaks, it may drop to $52,500-55,000; breaking $70,000 requires stronger catalysts)
ETH: $1,950-2,200 (key support level at $2,000)
SOL: $70-90 (suppressed by the Drift attack event, rebound momentum is weak)
Main Risks:
Geopolitical escalation (high priority). If the U.S. takes further military action against Iran or if shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is obstructed, oil prices may continue to rise, further suppressing risk assets including cryptocurrencies.
$60,000 key support breach. Technical analysis shows that if Bitcoin clearly falls below the psychological threshold of $60,000, it may trigger programmed selling and leveraged liquidations, accelerating the drop to the $52,500-55,000 region. Currently, AI algorithm trading is said to account for over 65%, potentially amplifying volatility after a technical break.
Solana ecosystem trust crisis spreads. The Drift Protocol attack event (loss of approximately $286 million, suspected to be related to North Korean hackers) may trigger more security vulnerabilities being disclosed or lead to a rapid withdrawal of funds from the Solana ecosystem.
Understanding the Present
Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the market, Bitcoin experiences a "roller coaster"行情.
This week, the cryptocurrency market was completely influenced by geopolitics. In the first half of the week, Bitcoin briefly surpassed $69,000 to reach a nearly week-high due to expectations of U.S.-Iran negotiations; however, on April 2, following Trump's statements about "extremely severe" actions against Iran, the market plummeted, with Bitcoin falling below $67,000 and mainstream cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and SOL also declining across the board. This intense macro uncertainty has resulted in significant liquidations in the derivatives market, with over 300,000 people liquidated in total during the week (including 150,000 liquidations on April 2 alone).
U.S. Department of Justice charges 10 individuals with "market maker" fraud.
This week, U.S. prosecutors filed criminal charges against 10 individuals, accusing them of being involved in "wash trades" and "pump and dump" schemes related to cryptocurrencies. Notably, the tokens involved were created by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), marking a significant case in the regulatory effort to combat market manipulation, signaling that future regulation on low market cap tokens will be stricter.
BlackRock deposits over $120 million in cryptocurrency assets with Coinbase.
On-chain data shows that an address associated with BlackRock's ETF deposited 1,360 Bitcoin (approximately $90.28 million) and 15,103 Ethereum (approximately $30.82 million) into Coinbase Prime on April 3. This move is typically seen as part of ETF subscriptions or market making preparations, indicating that traditional financial giants continue to accumulate cryptocurrency assets through spot channels.
J.P. Morgan lowers HashKey's target price, warns of regulatory pressure.
J.P. Morgan downgraded the rating of Hong Kong-listed cryptocurrency exchange HashKey from "overweight" to "neutral," with a significant target price cut of 44%. The reasoning points to weak sentiment in the global cryptocurrency market and declining profit margins, reflecting that even compliant exchanges face severe profitability challenges in the current bear market atmosphere.
Elon Musk "promotes" meme coin, traders profit 211 times.
On March 30, Elon Musk released an AI animation about the "Bitcoin wife," causing the relevant meme coin (ANIME) market cap to skyrocket to $3.4 million. A savvy trader took this opportunity to sell a position that was worth only 1.1 SOL (about $230) a year ago, making a profit of $19,500, resulting in a staggering return of 211 times. This again confirms Musk's significant influence in the cryptocurrency meme circle.
Mercado Libre announces shutdown of its cryptocurrency.
Latin American e-commerce giant Mercado Libre announced it will close its proprietary cryptocurrency "Mercado Coin" on April 17. The project was launched in 2022 and mainly used for user incentives. This move indicates that large tech companies are reassessing the practical utility of loyalty tokens and leaning towards using stablecoins as payment tools.
SEB Bank and BitGo hold differing views: Is institutional capital really flowing in?
Market attitudes towards institutions have diverged. SEB Bank's report indicates a lack of strong institutional fund inflows in the cryptocurrency market, with options positions still tilted towards defensiveness. However, BitGo announced the launch of an institutional-grade stablecoin minting service "BitGo Mint," supporting USD1 and SoFiUSD, aiming to provide compliant entry points for market makers and banks, indicating that infrastructure development is still progressing.
FTX launches fourth round of distributions; approximately $2.2 billion will be returned to creditors.
FTX's bankruptcy restructuring has entered a new phase, with its trust institution launching the fourth round of distributions totaling approximately $2.2 billion on March 31. Eligible creditors will receive funds through platforms like BitGo and Kraken. Whether the release of this portion of funds will bring new buying power to the market has become a focal point for investors.
EthCC conference held in Cannes, ecosystem development continues.
The largest Ethereum community conference EthCC was held in Cannes, France from March 30 to April 2. Meanwhile, Aave V4 officially launched on the Ethereum mainnet, and Sushi announced that it will launch a perpetual contract (Perps) market on April 2. Despite the market downturn, core developers and infrastructure construction continue to progress.
Whales increase positions against the trend: 40x leverage shorting Bitcoin.
As the market generally declined due to war risks, some whales chose to "kick someone when they are down." Hyperinsight monitoring showed that on April 2, one address opened a new short position in Bitcoin worth $13.3 million with 40x leverage. This extreme betting method suggests that professional traders believe geopolitical risks have not fully dissipated, and short-term downward pressure remains significant.
Macroeconomics
On April 1, the U.S. ADP employment increase for March was 62,000, with an expectation of 40,000 and a prior value of 63,000.
On April 2, the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending March 28 was 202,000, the lowest since the week of January 10, 2026. This is lower than the expected 212,000, with the previous value revised from 210,000 to 211,000.
On April 1, according to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in April is 2.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 97.9%.
ETF
Statistics reveal that from March 30 to April 3, the net inflow for U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF was: $22.4 million; as of April 3, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $25.978 billion, currently holding $10.35 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $52.493 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is: $89.003 billion.
U.S. Ethereum Spot ETF Net Outflow: $42.1 million.
Envisioning the Future
Industry Conferences
BNB Chain U.S. College Roadshow (University of California, Berkeley) will be held on April 7, 2026, in Berkeley, USA.
GOAT Network will host an offline event titled "How to Make Your First Money with AI Agents" on April 11, 2026, from 14:00 to 15:00 in Beijing.
Hong Kong Web3 Carnival 2026 will be held from April 20 to 23, 2026, in Hong Kong, China.
Istanbul Blockchain Week 2026 will take place on June 2 to 3, 2026, in Turkey.
Project Progress
The deadline for claiming the Fogo airdrop is April 15, 2026.
MEET48's IDOL token staking program on BNB Chain will continue until April 18, 2026. This activity started on March 19, allowing users to lock their IDOL tokens for 90 days on BNB Chain and receive principal and a 40% annual percentage rate (APR) upon the end of the lock-up period.
Important Events
Gemini announced it will close all customer accounts in the U.K., European Economic Area, and Australia starting April 6, 2026.
The European Central Bank is recruiting experts to participate in the formulation of the digital euro "rulebook," with applications open until April 10. The two working groups recruited will cover implementation specifications for ATM and terminal vendors and the certification and approval framework for payment solutions.
On April 9 at 20:30, the U.S. will release the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending April 4 (thousands).
On April 9 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the year-on-year core PCE price index for February.
On April 10 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the year-on-year unadjusted CPI for March.
Token Unlocks
Opinion (OPN) will unlock 32.01 million tokens on April 5, worth approximately $6.05 million, accounting for 13.91% of the circulation.
Hyperliquid (HYPE) will unlock 333,000 tokens on April 6, worth approximately $11.8 million, accounting for 0.14% of the circulation.
Movement (MOVE) will unlock 161 million tokens on April 9, worth approximately $2.91 million, accounting for 4.92% of the circulation.
Babylon (BABY) will unlock 632 million tokens on April 10, worth approximately $8.86 million, accounting for 37.77% of the circulation.
Linea (LINEA) will unlock 1.38 billion tokens on April 10, worth approximately $4.12 million, accounting for 5.32% of the circulation.
Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.3 million tokens on April 12, worth approximately $9.79 million, accounting for 0.68% of the circulation.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is committed to transforming professional analysis into your practical weapon. We analyze market trends for you through "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Reports"; leveraging our exclusive column "Hotcoin Select" (AI + expert dual screening), we identify potential assets to reduce trial-and-error costs. Weekly, our researchers also connect with you directly via live broadcasts to interpret hotspots and forecast trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize value opportunities in Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing carries inherent risks. We strongly recommend that investors understand these risks fully and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure fund safety.
Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch
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