Operation Direction and Position Recommendations
Holding 【Long Position】：
Action: Continue holding, do not heavily add positions near the resistance level of 70000.
Take Profit Point: Targeting 71500; if there is resistance around 70200 and the TD sequence reaches 9, can first reduce the position by 30%. Stop Loss Point: Move stop loss up to 68800, ensuring profits are not given back.
Currently 【No Position】：
Strategy: Wait for a pullback, do not chase up.
Entry Point: If the price pulls back to the range of 69100 - 69300 and does not break, can enter lightly (3-7% position) for a chance at a second high.
If you hold 【Short Position】：
Recommendation: Currently in a strong bullish breakout market, with moving averages aligned bullishly. It is advised to close the position and exit at a low when the price revisits 69200, do not hold against the trend.
Resistance Levels: 70233 (previous high), 71500.
Support Levels: 69000 (round number), 68100 (MA52 support line).
Risk Warning
False breakout risk: 70000 is a key psychological level, if tonight the US stock market cannot stabilize with volume, there may be a violent “false door” situation.
ETF capital flow volatility: Pay attention to tonight's net inflow/outflow data for ETF; if it turns into net outflow, the rebound may end earlier.
Summary: BTC has regained lost ground, short-term bullish sentiment prevails, strategy focuses on “buying low” or “holding longs waiting for rise”
News
Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Situation
With the digestion of Trump's speech on geopolitical situations, market risk aversion has eased, the momentum of the US dollar index has slowed, and funds have begun to flow back to risk assets.
Institutional Dynamics
Morgan Stanley submitted the latest S-1 amendment, and the market still holds expectations for continued inflow into spot ETFs in the second quarter.
Whale Movement
The previously continuously shorting “pension whale” shows signs of partial closing after continuous position additions, and on-chain data indicates that the pace of over 5000 BTC flowing into exchanges has slowed.
Long-term Indicator
The BTC accumulation index remains near 0.49 in the “bottom fishing range,” providing strong confidence support for spot investors.
Free Authorized TV Long-Short Oscillation Indicator
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