Operation Direction: Go Long with the Trend, Increase Positions on Retracements
Strategy: Do not chase at high levels. Wait for the price to stabilize after a retracement in the 2110 - 2130 range to enter long positions in batches.
Stop Loss: 2045 (if it breaks below the dense moving average zone, it indicates a failed reversal)
Support and Resistance
Resistance Level 2174 (previous high resistance line in the chart), if broken, expect to reach 2250.
Support: 2100 (round number), 2054 (dense moving average convergence zone)
Risk Warning
High-Level Consolidation Risk: The price at the 2174 resistance level may experience a false breakout and subsequent pullback. Response Plan: Move the trailing stop loss up to 2100 to lock in profits.
Macroeconomic Disruptions: If U.S. stocks open tonight and experience another fluctuation, it may trigger Ethereum to test support. Response Plan: Control leverage and reserve funds for additional positions.
News: Sentiment Warms Up, Large Players Shift to Bullish Dominance
In the past 24 hours, the market has quickly recovered from the previous war gloom, with news significantly turning bullish:
Large Player Movements Shift from Bearish to Bullish: The "pension whale" that had continuously opened short positions is starting to signal closing shorts after consecutive profits, and on-chain monitoring shows new large amounts of funds (about 120 million USD) being withdrawn from exchanges to cold wallets, indicating large players beginning to lock in positions.
Geopolitical Situation Cools Down: Although the aftershocks of Trump’s remarks about “the Iran mission being completed” still linger, the energy market (WTI crude oil) has retreated from a high of 101, easing risk aversion and reallocating funds back to risk assets like Ethereum.
ETF Approval Expectations Reverse: With Morgan Stanley submitting the latest S-1 amendment, the market's expectations for the approval of a second-quarter Ethereum spot ETF are once again heating up, with institutional buying activity being active during the Asian morning session.
Overall Judgment: Bullish. The market has digested negative news such as the Drift protocol theft and entered a period of consolidation and upward recovery.
Technical View: Bulls Break Out with Volume, Initiating a V-Shaped Reversal
Pattern Analysis
V-Shaped Reversal: The price completes a second bottom (double bottom structure) near 2022 and then breaks out with volume.
TD Signal: The chart shows that it is currently in the TD Up:3 sequence, indicating that the bullish trend has just started and has not yet entered the overbought exhaustion zone.
Moving Average System (MA): The price has successfully stabilized above MA24 (2053) and MA120 (2054). Currently, MA24 crosses above MA120, forming a golden cross, which is a strong bullish signal.
Free Authorization of TV Long and Short Support Indicator
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