In a recent research note titled "It’s Time to Get Ready for a Post-Quantum Future," Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl has recognized a major new paper from Google Quantum AI.
The report argues that the timeline for quantum computers to break classical cryptography is rapidly compressing. Hence, public blockchains have to immediately bolster their defenses.
Notably, Pandl specifically praised the XRP Ledger and Solana for already taking the initiative and experimenting with post-quantum cryptography (PQC).
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The looming quantum threat
The urgency has been prompted by a recent breakthrough by Google Quantum AI.
A quantum computer capable of running Shor's algorithm at scale does not exist today, but the technology is advancing in "discrete jumps."
XRPL is not quantum resistant. It could be made so, but with the present mechanims we have, the result would kind of suck because the quantum resistant algorithms we know of all have painful disadvantages in blockchain applications. ...
— David 'JoelKatz' Schwartz (@JoelKatz) July 26, 2022Aanchal Malhotra, Ripple's head of research, also recently took note of the development. The researcher noted that Google validated the result using a zero-knowledge proof rather than publishing the algorithm, meaning meaningful quantum cryptanalysis progress is no longer fully public.
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It now takes fewer than 500,000 physical qubits to solve ECDLP-256 on superconducting hardware, a roughly 20x reduction from prior estimates.
Google has effectively set a post-quantum migration deadline for 2029.
"No wallets are getting cracked tomorrow," Malhotra stated. "But the trend line is compressing faster than most of the industry is prepared for."
Back in July 2022, Ripple CTO David "JoelKatz" Schwartz acknowledged that the XRPL was not natively quantum-resistant. At the time, he noted that while the network could be upgraded, the known quantum-resistant algorithms had "painful disadvantages in blockchain applications."
The strategy was to carefully monitor the technology and "implement the best quantum-resistant algorithms whenever the risk looks to be within about 5 years of materializing." He added that he did not believe the industry was there yet.
However, with Google Quantum AI now openly pointing to a 2029 deadline, that five-year window has officially arrived.
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