Today, keeping my promise, I will chat with everyone about contracts. Looking back at yesterday's market, it was quite interesting, breaking through the strong resistance at the seventy thousand level and reaching around 70380, then maintaining downwards pressure to a low point close to 68300. Although the fluctuation was only about 2000 points, it still resulted in a bearish candle with an upper shadow yesterday. Do you remember what I said two days ago about the long upper shadow representing strong bearish power? In discussing the short-term trend, we first need to clarify where the bearish forces currently facing the medium-term level, specifically the monthly chart, come from. In the financial sector, the factors include energy shortages; recent data shows that as conflicts escalate, global energy production has reduced by about 20%. Do not underestimate this 20% figure; many countries cannot bear such pressure. A 20% reduction in energy does not mean a 20% price increase will solve the problem; things are not as simple as you might think.

Looking solely at the paper data, the impact is not strong, but interpreting from other fields, this 20% energy reduction will cause inflation in small countries, while it will not have much impact on larger countries. Considering certain news, why are sanctions being imposed on Japan at this stage? If this inflation is not handled properly, it could easily lead to a crash. Simply put, a 20% energy reduction is not an equal reduction across the board; rather, certain countries' shares have dropped to zero. This is a game (not specifically referring to Japan, but to smaller countries). Under such circumstances, it also means that global capital will flock to the energy sector, and the possibility of diversion to the cryptocurrency sector is nearly zero. It suddenly crossed my mind that last year to this year, Old Cui had provided everyone with an option for a company, stating that Space X is not worth purchasing again. The stock price valuation disclosed last year was still in the trillions range, and this year's latest valuation has reached 17.5 trillion. In the meantime, integrating X ai only raised the valuation; caution is needed if you plan to invest again.

The information revealed by the mid-term is almost entirely dominated by bears; the probability of a rate cut in June has decreased again, and there is even the option of a rate hike at 4.1% and 1.5%, with a probability of maintaining the status quo at 94.4%, meaning it is almost impossible to lower rates again in June. If there is no major event in between, the rate cut will be postponed to September. We are currently only at the beginning of April, with almost a complete six months until September's rate cut. So, will there still be funds pouring into the cryptocurrency sector during this period? The only hope for a reversal in the bull market is the talks between China and the United States, which Old Cui referred to as a major event and the only variable (this issue cannot be elaborated further). I want to remind everyone that the observable data in the cryptocurrency market should be based mainly on the US. Do not draw conclusions based on domestic information, as the problems facing the domestic market are different from those of the global financial market, with deflation being more apparent. Let's just say that one key point should be clear: the bearish forces dominate the mid-term level.

In the long-term perspective, contract users do not need to pay too much attention; it is meaningless. The mid-term can define the bearish trend, and everyone should try to align short-term trading with the trend; however, it is also essential to remember that although Old Cui is bearish in the short term, it is not a one-sided, mindless bearish stance, nor is it necessarily looking for a new low. The timing and opportunity to enter the market must be completed within a short period; holding positions overnight is not advisable. If there are gains, one must exit, preferably controlling it within 500-1000 points. The primary resistance level is near EMA30, around 69100-69275. The strong pressure position is near the previous high: around 70300. Once the trend reverses, you can directly cut losses and wait for the market shocks to end before entering again. Today's market fluctuations will definitely be quite intense, and as we approach the so-called final deadline of the conflict, there will definitely be a wave of downward movement; remember to be quick (Eastern US time, precisely at 20:00). If you lack patience, you can directly enter short at the current price! If you have already missed the market, you can ask Old Cui again; today, we can chat about short-term contract issues!

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