Written by: Glendon, Techub News
Last night, the price of Bitcoin surged briefly, breaking through $76,000, reaching its highest level since February 4. Following this, Ethereum also rose, surpassing $2,400. This wave of price rebound coincided subtly with a report from Fox News, where Trump claimed that the war between the United States and Iran had ended. Although there has been no official confirmation of the cessation of military action, this statement undoubtedly released a strong signal of "geopolitical easing" on the macro narrative level.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index rose from 12 to 21 yesterday, indicating a slight easing of market panic. As of the time of writing, the probability of BTC reaching $80,000 in April on the Polymarket platform has increased rapidly by 11 percentage points to 32%, reflecting an optimistic expectation for the market's future trends. Currently, the trading volume in this prediction market is about $24.37 million.
From a deeper perspective, Trump's remarks may only be a trigger for this market uptrend, while the real driving force stems from recent fundamental factors and the joint push of market expectations. In terms of data, CoinShares' latest weekly report shows that last week, net inflows into digital asset investment products reached $1.1 billion, setting a new weekly inflow high since January of this year, and total assets under management have also risen to a high level since early February. Driven by the progress of the truce in Iran, along with lower-than-expected U.S. CPI and spending data, trading volume grew by 13% week-on-week, with Bitcoin attracting $871 million and Ethereum receiving $196.5 million in inflows.
Additionally, two market giants in the DAT sector, Strategy and BitMine, continue to increase their positions. The former invested approximately $1 billion last week to acquire 13,927 Bitcoins, while BitMine purchased an additional 71,524 ETH, marking its highest weekly purchase volume since the week of December 22, 2025.
BitMine's chairman, Tom Lee, explicitly stated that since the outbreak of the war in Iran, Ethereum has risen by 17.4%, outperforming the S&P 500 index and gold. This performance proves that Ethereum has become a wartime store of value asset in the eyes of investors. He also pointed out that Ethereum is benefiting from the dual advantages of Wall Street's blockchain tokenization and increased demand for public chain systems driven by AI agents, thereby determining that Ethereum is currently in the last stage of a "mini crypto winter."
So, does the cryptocurrency market truly show signs of warming?
Cryptocurrency analyst Markus Thielen pointed out that Coinbase's Bitcoin premium has recently risen to its highest level since October 2025, indicating an improvement in buying sentiment in the U.S. market, suggesting that some institutional funds may have re-entered the market. Previously, the premium had turned into a discount, which was seen as a signal of weak market sentiment; now, re-entering the premium zone may indicate a stabilization of demand. As of mid-April, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs still maintain a trend of monthly net inflows.
On April 14, Eastern Time, the total net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs was approximately $411 million, while the total net inflow of Ethereum spot ETFs yesterday was about $53.03 million, continuing a net inflow for four consecutive days. If this flow of funds can be sustained, it will further strengthen the trend of recovery in the liquidity.
Cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo also believes that Bitcoin capital inflow data has turned positive for the first time since January of this year, signaling the emergence of liquidity repair signals. Currently, $80,000 has become a key testing point for Bitcoin, and whether it can break through will influence the short-term market direction.
On the policy and regulatory front, there are also positive signals. Negotiations on the U.S. crypto bill "CLARITY Act" are about to enter a critical week. Over the past year, the handling of "stablecoin rewards" has been a major obstacle to advancing this bill in committee. With U.S. lawmakers returning to Capitol Hill next week, negotiations regarding "stablecoin rewards" will unfold comprehensively, and the Senate Banking Committee plans to vote on the crypto market structure bill before the end of this month.
In response, White House crypto council director Patrick Witt stated that the consensus reached by key bipartisan senators on the issue of stablecoin yields appears to still be valid. Additionally, while banks and crypto companies are negotiating on the "CLARITY Act" stablecoin revenue issue, negotiators are also working to resolve other obstacles. If the current compromise proposal in the Senate can be maintained, the remaining points of contention will be easier to resolve.
During this period, there is another event particularly worth noticing. Yesterday, Arjun Sethi, co-CEO of crypto exchange Kraken, confirmed that the company has secretly submitted its IPO application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. This IPO application is a formal progression following its plan to go public that was disclosed last November. However, this March, Kraken paused its IPO process due to the slump in the crypto market. Data shows that Kraken's latest valuation is approximately $13.3 billion, a significant drop from its $20 billion valuation in November 2025.
However, yesterday, according to Bloomberg, Deutsche Börse will invest $200 million in Kraken's parent company Payward to acquire approximately 1.5% of its fully diluted shares. The timing of Deutsche Börse's investment in Kraken conveys a deeper signal: even though the crypto market remains in a volatile cycle, institutional capital is positioning itself for the long term in a "buying more as it falls" manner. The restart of Kraken's IPO process also indirectly reflects an improvement in market expectations, indicating its optimism about market liquidity repair and the recovery of investor sentiment.
However, amidst the warming market sentiment, investors need to remain rational and clear-headed. Although the overall cryptocurrency market is showing a positive trend recently, this trend is more in line with the technical repair features seen in a bear market, resembling the rebound trends of the third and fourth quarters of 2022, far from reaching the level of a structural trend reversal. According to Glassnode data, the relative unrealized loss rates for Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and SOL are 11.9%, 16.6%, 31.8%, and 54.8%, respectively, with altcoin loss levels remaining high, highlighting the heavy pressure from trapped positions at these market tops.
Conclusion
In general, the current market resembles a tug-of-war for confidence recovery. Events like Kraken's IPO and Deutsche Börse's investment are a firm vote of confidence in the long-term value of the industry from institutions; conversely, the overall consolidation of the market and high unrealized losses on-chain serve as constant reminders of the fragility of the short-term rebound. For investors, perhaps the more pressing question is whether, as traditional capital begins to "buy the dip," the narrative logic of the cryptocurrency market has shifted from "driven by speculation" to "value anchoring." The answer may lie in the continued positioning of traditional institutions rather than in the short-term fluctuations of prices.
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