The protracted bear market, the looming clouds of war, and the symbolic damage seem to be three unrelated pieces of news that appeared successively this week in the East Eight Zone: on one side, Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua openly discusses bear market risk management; on the other side, Trump sends a hardline signal to Iran that the "days of being easy to talk to are over." Simultaneously, the statue in the Bitcoin museum in Lugano has been vandalized again. Security anxiety is no longer just about the volatility of trading account balances but has spilled over to tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and the crypto symbols in urban public spaces. Faced with the downward curve of asset prices and the high-voltage line of macro geopolitics, the question remains: how much control do investors truly have? This question is central to the discussion.

Self-rescue in the Shadow of a Bear Market: Prioritizing Principal Security

Yi Lihua’s statements are not startling in the current market context. The crypto market has been languishing for a long time, with incidents and security events occurring one after another. Many participants' emotions have shifted from excitement to fatigue, and even numbness. Against this backdrop, his choice to remind others that "protecting the principal during a bear market is essential" reflects an industry consensus: the stories of instant wealth are temporarily taking a backseat; how to avoid "dying in winter" has become a more pragmatic issue.

From his statement that "Investing should be optimistic, but risk control must be rigorous," one can see a typical layered approach—maintaining optimism about the long-term potential of the industry while exercising extreme restraint in short-term position management. Optimism points to technological evolution, application penetration, and cyclical recurrence, while rigor focuses on leverage multiples, position ratios, and liquidity reserves. In simple terms, it means keeping the sense of direction stable while compressing rhythm and risk exposure into a more conservative range.

Returning to a typical bear market scene: price fluctuations remain violent with a downward trend, black swans and the game of "bad news already priced in" constantly playing out, many people have become accustomed to "buying the dip" after a sharp fall. The problem arises when systemic confidence is lacking, and the shadows of rumors and regulation overlay; often, rebounds are short and chaotic, and one misjudgment could swallow up months of accumulated profits, or even the principal. In contrast, reducing positions, lowering leverage, and extending observation periods are often more helpful in surviving long-term downturns until the next turning point.

For ordinary investors, the practical significance of these reminders lies in resetting expectations—not viewing every dip as the "last chance to get in," but allowing themselves to miss out on some gains in exchange for higher survival probabilities. Of course, such principled advice also has its limitations: it cannot provide specific allocation ratios and execution standards, as operability varies among groups with different capital sizes and information access capabilities. However, in the highly asymmetric information world of crypto, the simple logic of "first protect the principal, then discuss other matters" remains a rare consensus applicable across cycles.

Clouds of War: Risks in the Strait of Hormuz and Hardline Signals

Meanwhile, another front far from the trading screens is heating up. Former U.S. President Trump recently stated in public remarks regarding Iran that the "days of being easy to talk to are over," with a tone clearly shifting from warning to threat, creating a tense atmosphere in the public discourse itself. He also claimed that Iran is suffering massive losses every day due to the current situation; although the figures come from a single source and will not be further analyzed in this report, it is evident that he is trying to amplify deterrence through the concept of "cost."

Understanding why such statements quickly trigger market nerves cannot bypass the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway is the throat of global energy transportation, long seen as a barometer of geopolitical risk. If blockades, disturbances, or large-scale military standoffs occur here, not only will the export of Middle Eastern crude oil face obstacles, but the global supply chain will also be forced to reprice, with adjustments needed in transportation costs, insurance fees, and inventory strategies within a short timeframe.

At the asset pricing level, Trump's hardline stance is immediately interpreted by the market as a reimagining of future energy prices, imported inflation, and even central bank policy paths. Even if the Strait of Hormuz is not truly closed in reality, as conflict expectations rise and military risk premiums increase, the fluctuation of crude oil and related assets will preemptively reflect these worries. The imagination space for safe-haven assets is thus enlarged, and some funds may anticipate the "worst case," seeking hedges among bonds, gold, or even some alternative assets.

It is important to emphasize that, in the absence of systematic data and clear transmission chains, we cannot quantify the real market impact of Trump's remarks. One cannot infer the scale of macro impacts from single-source loss figures, nor can one directly equate current statements with the price paths of historical crises. What can be discussed are only the potential risk transmission paths and the mechanisms of emotional amplification—which, from an investor's perspective, are already significant external variables that need serious consideration.

Safe-Haven Imagination and Price Reality: The Awkward Coordinates of Crypto Assets

Historical experience tells us that every time geopolitical conflicts heat up, the correlation paths between assets often unfold along established trajectories: high-risk assets are sold off first, while traditional safe-haven assets like government bonds and gold garner funding during initial panic; if the conflict evolves into a long-standing stalemate, the market adjusts allocations based on economic fundamentals and policy responses. Energy prices, inflation expectations, and monetary policy will constitute a dynamic feedback loop.

Within this framework, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have been trying to take on a new role as "digital safe-haven" in recent years, attempting to position themselves alongside gold as tools to hedge against sovereign credit and currency devaluation. However, in the current bear market environment, this narrative appears particularly awkward: prices themselves are in a downward or volatile bottoming phase, and short-term performance resembles that of high-beta risk assets rather than a stable anchor. Once macro risks emerge, it is often the leverage that is first liquidated and speculative chips that are squeezed out, leaving "digital safe-haven" merely at a conceptual level.

For crypto investors under the shadow of war clouds, the psychological tug-of-war is particularly evident: on one hand, they have been indoctrinated by narratives proclaiming "Bitcoin is the ultimate asset to hedge fiat currency," leading them to instinctively interpret geopolitical tensions as long-term positives; on the other hand, the current reality is a continued drawdown in account value, tightening liquidity, contract liquidations, and regulatory shadows, making it difficult for them to increase their "safe-haven" positions with the same single-mindedness as they would with gold.

In the absence of verified data regarding this round of events and the prohibition of fabricating price and volume reactions, we can only cautiously infer the short to medium-term impacts from the perspectives of sentiment and funding preferences: in the initial panic, mainstream capital is likely to prioritize returning to more traditional and deeper safe-haven assets; some original crypto native capital may choose to flow back from more speculative altcoins to leading assets, but this resembles “defensive rotation within the ecosystem” rather than a safe-haven inflow across markets. This also reminds investors not to automatically equate every geopolitical conflict with an "inevitable surge logic" for crypto assets.

The Destruction of the Satoshi Statue Again: The Fragile Boundaries of Faith and Symbol

Aside from price and macro factors, symbolic impacts are also occurring. According to a briefing, the statue of Satoshi Nakamoto at the Bitcoin museum in Lugano was vandalized for the second time recently. This public art piece, which is based on the Bitcoin founder, has been targeted more than once. The details of the incident—including the identity of the vandal and the specific methods used—are currently unknown and inappropriate to speculate on, but the fact that it was "the second time" is enough to provoke complex associations within and outside the crypto community.

The response from the museum, "You can bend steel, but you cannot distort its meaning," sets the tone for this symbolic struggle. Steel represents a material carrier that can be bent, damaged, or even replaced, while "meaning" points to decentralization, censorship resistance, and reflections on traditional financial orders—these concepts are not easily erased by one or two acts of vandalism. To some extent, the vandalism of the statue itself has become part of the crypto narrative: a new system inevitably faces actual and symbolic conflicts while grappling with the old world.

Debates surrounding the image of Satoshi and crypto culture have long existed. Some regard him (or them) as pioneers of technological and monetary experimentation, while others categorize Bitcoin as a speculative bubble or even a source of social risk. The statue becoming the focal point of conflict aptly reflects society's divided attitude towards this emerging system: supporters hope to gain legitimacy and mainstream recognition through symbols in public spaces; opponents or skeptics may express their rejection of this "new myth" through acts of vandalism.

From a longer time dimension, this tug of war over symbols and identities will not conclude with a single repair or a single act of destruction. The crypto community strives for greater institutional recognition in the real world—ranging from regulatory frameworks to financial infrastructure connectivity; at the same time, it must constantly combat stigmatization coming from media, political discourse, and social opinion. The fate of the Satoshi statue is only one visible slice of this long-term game.

From Accounts to the World: The Spillover of Security Anxiety

Reassembling these clues: the risk control reminders in a bear market, the tense atmosphere over the Strait of Hormuz, and the bending of the steel statue in Lugano all point to one keyword—security. However, this "security" has long transcended traditional notions of account security or the safety of a singular project, expanding into multiple dimensions of capital markets, geopolitical patterns, and cultural identities.

Compared to the early "get-rich-quick myth," the focus of industry narratives is subtly shifting. Back then, the story was about achieving a leap in wealth in an extremely short time, whereas now, more discussions focus on "risk tolerance," "drawdown management," and "survival cycles." Whether institutional or individual, everyone is beginning to realize that in an environment filled with regulatory uncertainty, technological black swans, and macroeconomic upheavals, how to reduce extreme tail risks is more decisive than pursuing maximized returns.

For individual investors, the controllable space is actually very limited but is not a complete vacuum. What can genuinely be done focuses on three internal skills: firstly, risk control, managing hard indicators like leverage, position sizes, and concentration; secondly, information discernment, differentiating facts, viewpoints, and pure emotional outbursts in an environment filled with noise and emotional agitation; and thirdly, managing psychological expectations, accepting that "long-term volatility and high drawdowns" are inherent characteristics of crypto assets, not an abnormal state, and avoiding every drawdown from being amplified into a survival crisis.

At the same time, industry participants must acknowledge that they face compounded external risks: the instability of regulatory attitudes, capital flow changes potentially triggered by geopolitical conflicts, and societal biases and misunderstandings towards crypto—none of which are under any single entity’s control. The spread of security anxiety results from both system and individual vulnerabilities being exposed at the same time, while all one can do is strengthen defenses within manageable limits and accept the world's uncertainties as background noise.

Risk Control as a Bottom Line, Not a Slogan: Surviving Amid Uncertainty

Returning the focus to investment practice, under the dual uncertainty of a bear market, geopolitical tensions, and symbolic conflicts, a simple yet often overlooked survival principle is being repeated: achieve the utmost in controllable risk management while acknowledging that uncontrollable macro and political risks always exist. Whether it is the principal protection emphasized by Yi Lihua or the market's sensitive reactions to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, they essentially point to the same reality—no one can predict the world, but everyone must take responsibility for their own risk exposure.

The reason "Investing should be optimistic, but risk control must be rigorous" is widely quoted today is that it neatly encapsulates a seemingly contradictory yet necessary coexistence: maintaining confidence in the long-term direction of technology and the industry while opting for conservatism on the execution front rather than relaxing defenses. Long-termism does not mean blindly holding out, nor does it equate to "using faith to combat reality" in every drawdown; rather, it is about establishing sufficient buffers for extreme scenarios while enduring fluctuations.

Looking to the future, the true competition in the crypto market may not be about who can seize the next round of short-term surges but rather about who can survive longer amid the chaos filled with black swans and gray rhinos. Surviving longer means building thicker moats in risk control, cognition, and psychology, and also means being able to make calm decisions when facing multiple uncertainties regarding accounts, the world, and symbols. As for price and geopolitical realities, they will evolve according to their own logic, and only those remaining in the arena will be qualified to discuss the next narrative.

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