1. News Front: Rising Risk Aversion and On-Chain Runs

• Macro and Geopolitics: The US-Iran ceasefire agreement is approaching its deadline, the situation in the Middle East is tense again, crude oil prices are soaring, and US stock futures are declining. The market has returned to a “headline-driven” mode, with risk assets generally under pressure.

• Run on Security Events: KelpDAO experienced a vulnerability attack leading to bad debts in Aave, triggering a capital outflow of over 6.6 billion, with ETH utilization reaching 100% at one point. This on-chain credit risk directly resulted in selling pressure on ETH.

• Institutional Movements: Despite short-term setbacks, as of last week, ETH ETFs still maintained a net inflow for six consecutive days. Research from Nomura Securities shows that 80% of institutions plan to allocate to crypto assets, indicating continued long-term support logic.

2. Technical Analysis: Downward Channel Opened, Bears Dominate

• Moving Average System (MA): Prices have broken through the dense support zones of MA5 (2354), MA24 (2342), and MA52 (2346) with a spike.

  • The three short-term moving averages are currently forming a “death cross” and are arranged downward, creating strong resistance above.

  • MA120 (2279) is the key dynamic support below; if broken, the downward space will further open up.

• Indicator Patterns:

  • Pattern: After peaking at 2463, a clear descending staircase pattern has formed, currently in a weak rebound after declining.

  • TD Indicator: A TD9 signal has appeared at the bottom, indicating a slowdown in the short-term downtrend, with a possibility of a small-level counterattack, but the reversal signal is not yet stable.

• Key Level Analysis:

  • Strong Resistance: 2350 - 2380 (previous support turned resistance area)

  • Key Support: 2280 (MA120), 2250 (recent pullback low), 2200 (psychological barrier).

3. Operational Direction: Suggestions for Cash Position/Holdings Management

Based on the current judgment of being in the early/mid-phase of a bearish trend:

• Currently Out of Position:

  • Entry Suggestion: Stay on the sidelines for now, do not blindly enter the market. If prices rebound to 2345 - 2360 and face resistance, consider lightly establishing short positions.

  • Long Position Suggestion: Only attempt short-term speculation if prices stabilize with volume near 2250 and a bottom divergence appears on the 1-hour MACD.

• Hold Long Positions:

  • Reduce Position/Stop Loss Point: If it breaks below 2275 (MA120), it is advisable to reduce positions or set a stop loss to prevent a chain liquidation triggered by situations similar to the Aave run.

• Position Management Strategy:

  • Strategy: Under extreme volatility, adopt the principle of “batch positioning with strict stop loss,” with a single loss not exceeding 2% of the total position.

4. Risk Warnings: Major Risk Points and Responses

• Liquidity Exhaustion Risk: Large-scale withdrawals from Aave may lead to soaring interest rates in on-chain lending protocols, triggering further deleveraging sell-offs.

  • Plan: Monitor Aave ETH lending rates; if the rates remain above 20% for an extended period, stay on the sidelines.

• Geopolitical Emergencies: If the US-Iran conflict escalates, ETH may quickly drop to the $2100 range.

  • Plan: Set hard stop losses; do not resist positions under the current environment.

• False Rebound Trap: A TD9 at the 1-hour level may trigger technical liquidity pulls; do not interpret it as a reversal signal without accompanying volume.

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