Master Discusses Hot Topics:

These days, to put it bluntly, this situation is just a pure verbal battle. The Americans are dragging their feet and not talking, while the Iranians are throwing out threats left and right, each trying to act tougher than the other. The result is that no one is really taking action, and no one wants to back down first.

The Vice President’s schedule has been indefinitely postponed, which essentially means the talks have collapsed; they can’t even be bothered to put on a show anymore. That phrase about preparing to introduce a new card sounds intimidating, but frankly, it's just ramping up to scare people. If they really wanted to take action, they would have started already, without needing to shout slogans every day.

The extension of the ceasefire is also an old tactic, and to put it harshly, it's because they have no better options. They dare not actually fight and don't want the market to collapse directly, so they can only buy time to stabilize emotions.

If you think of this as a good sign, that's quite naive. This thing is fundamentally about controlling rhythm and expectations, and it's not really about solving problems. It's all about rhetoric; whoever can fool others can gain a bit more initiative.

So right now, the market is being led by these broken pieces of news. Today, a hint pushes it up; tomorrow, a fierce statement brings it down, and the market is bouncing around like a pancake. It looks lively, but in reality, it's just emotions flying wildly.

Looking at the macro side, the message is already clear. An interest rate cut is basically ruled out, but they're still fantasizing about liquidity saving the day, which is just self-deception. Some people are even saying that changing personnel would result in rate cuts; this kind of logic is utter nonsense. Interest rates are determined by inflation and data, not by who occupies a certain position.

Back to the market, that drop last night was actually quite critical, hitting a low of 74.7K, down two thousand points from the high. It's not a huge drop, nor is it insignificant.

But the key point is that this position is just at the lower edge of the rising channel, and it was pushed down only to bounce back again. What does this indicate? It shows that the bulls are not dead yet and are even quite resilient.

But the problem lies here; while the structure looks strong, the pitfalls are slowly being dug. The head and shoulders top pattern is still there; the right shoulder is indeed rising, but that doesn't mean the structure is invalidated. Instead, it looks more like it's enticing people to jump on board.

Especially when there's a sharp pullback like this, it could easily turn into a pin that pierces down and buries all those chasing highs. Personally, I lean towards thinking this accelerated rise is unstable; the faster it goes up, the quicker it could crash down.

Think about it; what’s the essence of this wave of rise? It’s not that the fundamentals suddenly improved; it’s a hard pull from the news side. Negotiations, delays, all driven by emotions.

This matter hasn’t been resolved at all, and there will still be continued back-and-forth, with a high probability they won’t reach an agreement any time soon. This means that this uncertainty will repeatedly resurface, and the market might be slammed down hard again at any moment.

Now the prices are just swaying at a high point. To put it bluntly, there are two possible paths. Either they directly dump it down hard, reversing this wave of emotion in one fell swoop, or they stall a bit longer, pushing up to a small high point to touch around 78K, then it should roughly end.

That position is originally a high range, and the selling pressure won't be small. Adding the head and shoulders top and a potential double top structure, I really don’t think it has the capability to surge straight to the upper limit of 79.5K.

Master Looks at Trends:

The current price of bitcoin is around 77.5K, just reaching the upper rising channel, looking quite strong, but the position is very awkward. Above is the previous high and dense resistance, below is the newly confirmed support; one step on the gas could break through, while one step on the brakes could drop straight back down.

The structure is typically bullish but could easily flip. The lows are indeed rising. However, this wave is a rebound from a drop, not the main upward wave.

The key is to focus on two positions. If 77.8K holds, it would signify breaking through the previous high, and funds would push it for a stretch; 78.8K is the next step. But if it fails to push through, it could easily become a trap for buyers and drop straight down.

Below, 77K is key; once it breaks, the strong logic begins to shake, and the price will likely revert to a channel range, even potentially dropping to 76.4K. This type of structure is the toughest; you don't dare chase up, nor do you dare catch down, specifically designed to torment people.

4.22 Master’s Segment Pre-set:

Long Entry Reference: Not available at the moment

Short Entry Reference: Short in the range of 78300-78800, Target: 77800-77000

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you must keep following rather than making rash conclusions after just a few views of the market. This market is filled with performers; today they show screenshots of long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, and it looks like they’re "catching tops and bottoms every time," but in reality, it's all playing catch-up. The bloggers who are truly worth following must have trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and stands up to scrutiny, rather than rushing to act when movements occur. Don’t get blinded by exaggerated data and fragmented screenshots. Long-term observation and deep understanding are what distinguish thinkers from dream makers!

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