1. News Perspective: Confidence Game After the Rebound
Regulation and Politics: The U.S. House of Representatives has proposed the PACE Act, which aims to allow qualified companies to connect directly to the Federal Reserve payment rail, with widespread support from the crypto community, benefiting the Web3 payment infrastructure. Meanwhile, the crypto PAC has raised $180 million for the midterms, indicating an increase in the industry's political influence.
On-chain Dynamics: The Kelp DAO hacker has continued transferring over 31,000 ETH (approximately $72.58 million) into mixers over the past 15 hours. Currently, their address still holds about 75,000 ETH, and this potential selling pressure is a major short-term bearish cloud over the market.
Market Participation: Giant Bitmine disclosed holdings of nearly 5 million ETH, with long-term institutions quickly bottoming out after the plunge, restoring the confidence collapse caused by yesterday’s Aave run on the bank.
2. Technical Perspective: V-shaped Rebound Faces Challenges in Dense Moving Average Area
Current Price: Approximately 2392
Pattern Analysis: The price has made a strong V-shaped rebound after bottoming out at 2250, and it has effectively broken through yesterday's strong resistance level of 2350.
Moving Average System: The 30-minute MA5/10/30 is in a bullish arrangement.
Key Resistance: The price is currently challenging the drop point of 2415 since yesterday; from the chart, trading volume has significantly increased (67k turnover). If it cannot hold with increased volume, a short-term double top or high-level consolidation may form.
Indicator Analysis:
BOLL (Bollinger Bands): The price is currently running close to the upper band, with the opening expanding, indicating extremely strong short-term momentum, but it has reached the overbought zone.
TD Indicator: The 30-minute chart shows sufficient upward momentum, but caution is needed as the TD9 count may appear near 2420.
Support/Resistance:
First Resistance: 2415 - 2430 (Key previous high resistance area)
First Support: 2350 (Original resistance turned support)
Strong Support: 2310 (MA120 moving average level)
3. Operation Direction: Recommendations for Open or Light Positions
As the market has just experienced a large-level rebound, it is currently at a high-level game point:
Position Suggestions: Long Position Holders: If you built a position near the suggested 2280 yesterday, it is advisable to reduce the position by 50% near 2410 to lock in profits. Move the stop-loss up to 2340 (to break even).
No Position: It is strictly forbidden to blindly chase the price up near $2400. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback to the support level of 2350 - 2365 before entering long positions.
Short Selling Strategy: Only consider lightly shorting when the price touches 2425 and shows a clear one-hour long upper shadow or engulfing pattern, targeting 2360, with a stop-loss at 2445.
Position Management: In a volatile market, a single position should not exceed 5% of total assets.
4. Risk Warning
Black Swan Triggered by Coin Wash: If the Kelp DAO attacker makes large-scale sell-offs on DEX or through other means, it could lead to a short-term liquidity shock, causing the price to spike down below 2300.
Fed Policy Confirmation Risks: Statements from the Federal Reserve chair nominee's hearing may trigger fluctuations in U.S. stocks, which could in turn impact the crypto market.
Response Plan: Strictly implement a partial profit-taking method and preset moving stop-losses below important resistance levels.
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