Author: Hu Tao, ChainCatcher

The derivatives market is once again welcoming disruptors.

Yesterday, prediction market giant Polymarket announced it will soon launch perpetual futures trading, allowing users to trade various asset prices with at least 10x leverage, including real-world assets like gold and silver, stocks of companies like Nvidia and Coinbase, as well as digital assets like Bitcoin.

A few days ago, The Information reported that another leading prediction market project, Kalshi, plans to support perpetual futures on its platform, enabling U.S. customers to trade derivatives contracts with no expiration date and to trade around the clock using so-called financing rates.

The two prediction market heavyweights have announced the expansion of perpetual contract products in the short term, which expands their product and revenue boundaries while supporting the ongoing rise in financing and valuations, and responding to potential threats from some cross-industry competitors.

1. High Overlap in User Profiles

The user profiles of prediction markets and perpetual contracts have highly homogeneous characteristics: both attract high-risk tolerant, speculative investors who are extremely sensitive to macro events, and both carry the huge risk of users' investments going to zero in a short time.

In fact, a substantial amount of trading volume in prediction markets comes directly from predicting cryptocurrency prices. When users predict on Polymarket whether “Bitcoin can break $90,000 by the end of the month,” their underlying motivations are essentially the same as opening long positions in the futures market. By integrating perpetual contracts, prediction market platforms can fully exploit the commercialization potential of their existing user base.

Moreover, as a true reflection of user sentiment and opinions, the prediction results from prediction markets have already become an important reference for many users in cryptocurrency trading. Transitioning from checking predictions to engaging in contract trading is becoming a common trading pathway for this batch of users.

For the platforms, this not only adds functionality but also completes the trading loop: as users observe macro events (such as Federal Reserve meetings or geopolitical conflicts) and participate in predictions, they can directly use leverage to hedge or amplify their returns on associated assets (such as gold or U.S. stocks), thereby minimizing traffic loss.

At the same time, this functional overlap elevates the prediction market's “low-frequency, major event-driven” model to the derivatives market's “high-frequency, all-weather driven” dimension, thoroughly locking in user attention.

2. The Allure of a Trillion-Dollar Market

The direct driving force that attracts prediction market platforms to enter the battlefield is the enormous capital volume of the derivatives market.

Although prediction markets have seen explosive growth since 2025—according to Dune data, the total monthly trading volume for prediction markets has exceeded $20 billion each month this year, with daily trading exceeding $700 million.

However, in contrast, the scale of the perpetual contract market is entirely on another level. The daily trading volume on top decentralized perpetual contract platforms (such as Hyperliquid, dYdX) typically remains in the billions, while perpetual contracts on centralized exchanges (CEX) have daily trading volumes measured in the hundreds of billions.

This potential business prospect is irresistible for valuation-seeking Polymarket and Kalshi. Against the backdrop of prediction markets possibly experiencing a taper in traffic due to event cyclicity (such as after elections), the “high-frequency, essential, long-lasting” financial product of perpetual contracts will become the core pillar supporting their continuous valuation growth.

Moreover, Polymarket and Kalshi's actions are not blind trials but are backed by firm regulatory support.

Kalshi, as a designated contract market (DCM) regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), has a natural advantage in providing futures and options trading within a compliant framework. This means it can offer compliant “long-term contracts” to retail and institutional investors in the U.S. within a regulated scope. Polymarket US was also designated as a DCM by the CFTC in July 2025.

3. Expansion of Trading Scenarios as a Mainstream Trend

In a sense, the actions of the two prediction markets are also a response to derivatives giant Hyperliquid.

In February of this year, Hyperliquid explicitly stated on X that it plans to support outcome trading, a function that will allow users to directly create prediction markets and similar options tools on its platform. As the current leader in on-chain perpetual contracts, Hyperliquid is attempting to cover more trading scenarios by integrating predictive features.

Now, Polymarket and Kalshi's reverse entry into perpetual contracts is essentially a response to this threat: when an opponent tries to intrude into your territory, the most direct line of defense is to enter the other's core heartland.

More broadly, this change points to a clearer industry trend—every platform is competing for a “trading loop.”

In recent years, an increasing number of exchanges have begun integrating prediction market functions, hoping to keep users' “information trading needs” within their own system; while now, prediction markets are reversing to integrate perpetual contracts, attempting to cover users' “price trading needs.”

Whether they are centralized exchanges, decentralized derivatives platforms, or prediction markets, they are essentially evolving in the same direction: from single product providers to comprehensive trading platforms that cover multiple assets, tools, and scenarios.

Ultimately, the core variable behind this integration remains revenue and valuation. As growth pressure and competitive pressure converge, aligning towards diversified scenarios like derivatives has almost become an inevitable choice for all trading platforms.

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