This is a typical yet shocking night at the White House Correspondents' Dinner.

About 2,600 people attended, including Vice President Vance, FBI Director Patel, and key Cabinet officials, while Trump himself sat at the main table, with magician Oz Pearlman as the performing guest. In fact, this was also Trump's first time attending this annual gala as the sitting president; he had refused to attend throughout his first term due to his frosty relationship with the media.

Secret Service Protects Trump

The gunfire occurred just minutes after the banquet hall officially began, right after the Trump couple had taken their seats at the main table. The shots rang out from the security checkpoint direction. The 31-year-old Allen had checked into the hotel as a guest the day before and quietly brought a disassembled shotgun into the room. At this time, having prepared all night, he rushed through the metal detector, holding a shotgun, a handgun, and several knives.

CNN anchor Wolf Blitzer was standing just a few feet away from the shooter at the time, and he described witnessing the shooter fire at least six times with "a very deadly weapon." One Secret Service agent was shot, but the bulletproof vest saved the agent's life. Allen was then subdued and collapsed on the ground.

The Attacker Had Donated to Harris

According to investigations by Western media on the attacker Allen, he is a typical California elite STEM male based on his educational background at the age of 31.

California Institute of Technology has an acceptance rate of only 2.3% to 3.8%, admitting only 220 to 250 students each year, with an average SAT score between 1530 and 1580. Allen graduated with a Bachelor’s degree in Mechanical Engineering from here in 2017, and received a Master’s degree in Computer Science from California State University, Dominguez Hills in 2025. A computer science professor who taught him told the Associated Press that Allen always sat in the front row of the classroom, often emailed to ask academic questions, was gentle and polite, and was a good person.

Attacker Allen

After graduation, Allen worked part-time as a teacher at a tutoring agency called C2 Education and was named "Teacher of the Month" in December 2024, helping students prepare for college entrance exams. He also developed independent games, selling them for $1.99 on the Steam platform.

He was someone who seemed completely innocuous. A 17-year-old high school student he tutored told NPR, "He was just a bit of a bookish smart guy."

The complexity and multifaceted nature of a person are reflected in Allen.

In recent years, Allen gradually became involved in leftist activism in Los Angeles while acquiring firearms and regularly going to shooting ranges to practice. His social media left behind a lot of anti-Trump and anti-Christian content. He participated in California's "No Kings" protests and joined a social justice organization named "The Wide Awakes," which is named after a 1860s abolitionist youth movement that aimed to promote Lincoln's election.

"No Kings" protest against Trump

In October 2024, he donated $25 to the Democratic crowdfunding platform ActBlue, specifically earmarked for Harris's presidential campaign. However, voter registration records show he registered as "No Party Preference" in Los Angeles County.

This background is not difficult to understand. The educational environment of California's elite technological institutions, combined with the deep blue political ecology of California and the political climate reflected by the "No Kings" protests during Trump's second term, together create the soil for his ideological radicalization.

His sister told agents and investigators that Allen was used to expressing radical views and frequently mentioned doing "something" to fix the world's problems. In recent years, he had been going to shooting ranges to practice, with firearms stored at his parents' home, from which his parents were completely unaware.

About ten minutes before the attack, he sent a document to his family via text that resembled a farewell note. The content obtained by CNN showed that he apologized to "parents, colleagues, students, bystanders," stating that his targets were "administrative officials, from the highest to the lowest, ranked by priority."

How Will This Shooting Affect the Midterm Elections?

This is at least the third attack on Trump within two years.

The summer of 2024 represents the most dramatic arc in Trump's political narrative. At the Butler rally, the shot-at Trump raised his fist, blood streaming from his ear, against a backdrop of the American flag, becoming one of the most compelling political images in recent years and was thought to have directly boosted his support afterward.

But today’s political environment is completely different from that in 2024. With about six months to the midterm elections, Trump's approval rating has dropped to the mid-30s, and in various polls by Reuters, the Associated Press, and others, Trump received low scores for his handling of the economy, immigration, and the Iran war. Political scientist Nolan Higdon pointed out that the shooting "is unlikely to reverse the president's declining approval ratings," as criticism mainly stems from issues Trump currently has no ability to quickly change: the Iran situation and economic pressure, which will persist before the midterm elections.

Nevertheless, this incident still provides Trump with considerable political capital.

Trump himself accepted this "honor" in his usual manner. He stated he views multiple assassination attempts as proof of his historical significance and expressed determination not to allow danger to change his public schedule. At a press conference, he said, "When you look at those who have faced assassination attempts—successful or not—they are all great figures. Just look at those names. I have to say, I am honored by this."

He transforms threats into legendary narratives and escapes into a tale of destiny.

However, this time, the Trump administration did not choose to direct the blame toward the Democrats. This is intriguing. After all, following the assassination attempt in 2024, the first reaction from Trump's camp was to point fingers at the "incendiary rhetoric" of the Democrats, shifting the blame for the climate of hatred to their opponents. But this time, faced with a shooter who had donated to Harris and participated in the "No Kings" protest, he chose the "lone wolf" narrative.

The reason is not difficult to infer: the political complexion of the attacker, Allen, is complex enough but the evidence chain is weak; merely $25 in Democratic donations and registration as an independent cannot withstand a true partisan battle.

Therefore, the Trump administration has directed this shooting incident toward policy matters, specifically two issues that have long troubled Trump: the construction of the White House banquet hall and the budget for the Department of Homeland Security, which is still closed.

Trump's "Small Calculation," and the Chess Game After the Gunfire

The day after the shooting, Trump posted on Truth Social: "This will never happen in the military-grade top-secret banquet hall being built at the White House. It isn’t being built fast enough."

Trump believes that the attack occurred at the Hilton Hotel instead of the White House itself partly because the White House Correspondents' Dinner has always been held at the Hilton, and Reagan's 1981 assassination attempt also took place at the Hilton in Washington.

Scene of Reagan's assassination attempt in 1981

In July 2025, Trump announced plans to build a 90,000-square-foot "White House State Ballroom" on the original site of the East Wing, which will accommodate 999 people, with costs rising from an initial estimate of $200 million to $400 million.

Construction of the White House banquet hall

This $400 million project initially faced challenges due to "unreasonably high costs" and "destruction of historic artifacts." But overnight, the situation turned around. Brett Shumate, the Assistant Attorney General for the Civil Division, directly wrote to the National Historic Preservation Fund, demanding the withdrawal of the lawsuit blocking construction by Monday morning, stating in strong language: "Your lawsuit puts the lives of the President, his family, and his staff at serious risk... I hope yesterday's near-miss will make you realize the absurdity of this lawsuit."

Senator Lindsey Graham announced he would submit a bill to authorize and fund the banquet hall, saying: "Some people think this is a vanity project. I no longer think that. I just spoke with the President, and his first words were: 'We must build that banquet hall, not for me, but for future presidents.'" Senator Tim Sheehy and Representative Lauren Boebert also announced similar legislative efforts. Even Democratic Senator Fetterman wrote on X that the project should "put down TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome) and let the White House banquet hall be constructed."

This is exactly what Trump anticipated. Trump's other "small calculation" turned to the budget for the Department of Homeland Security.

Many people do not know that the U.S. government is currently still partially shut down, with the Department of Homeland Security experiencing a partial shutdown since February 14 due to funding interruptions, lasting for 73 days now.

Currently, according to Polymarket's market on "How long will the Department of Homeland Security's shutdown last?", it is highly likely that the Department will remain shut down for at least 20 more days.

The backstory of the Department of Homeland Security's shutdown is as follows: In January of this year, immigration enforcement officers shot and killed two American citizens during enforcement actions, after which the Democrats refused to approve normal funding for the Department of Homeland Security, pressing for limitations on immigration enforcement powers, resulting in the department being closed for nearly two months, with agents in a prolonged unpaid status.

Trump particularly pointed out this detail at the press conference after the shooting: "These are tough and reliable people who deserve to be paid. You know they are not being paid right now. The Democrats delayed their salaries." RNC Chair Joe Gruters went even further, characterizing the shooting as "the inevitable result of the radical left normalizing political violence," claiming that Democrats "have repeatedly obstructed funding for the Department of Homeland Security, jeopardizing the resources granted to those tasked with protecting Americans' safety."

Trump is no longer the challenger for 2024; he is now the holder of executive resources, and thus his strategy now is entirely different from that of 2024.

Meanwhile, the attacker Allen will appear in federal court on Monday, facing charges of using a firearm to commit violent crimes and assaulting federal officers. Prosecutor Pirro stated that more charges may be added as the investigation deepens. As we expected, acting Attorney General Blanche remarked that Allen has been very uncooperative in the investigation. It seems that the political aftershocks from this case will continue.

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