According to the logic we discussed earlier, the increase in shipping demand in the Strait of Hormuz is bearish for Bitcoin and will usually lead to a decline in price.
The core logic chain is very clear:
Increase in shipping demand → Intensified supply concerns → Rising oil prices → Increased inflation expectations → Damaging risk appetite → Bitcoin declines
Why will it decline?
Demand pushes up prices: The increase in shipping demand, especially against a backdrop of geopolitical tension, will intensify market concerns over whether oil supply can meet demand, directly pushing up international oil prices.
Inflation and risk: Rising oil prices will elevate global inflation expectations. To combat inflation, the market expects central banks to maintain high interest rates or delay rate cuts, which will dampen investors' risk appetite.
Capital withdrawal: When risk appetite declines, funds will withdraw from high-risk assets like Bitcoin and shift to safe-haven assets like the US dollar or government bonds, leading to pressure on Bitcoin's price to decline.
Important Note: The Complexity of the Current Market
It is particularly important to note that the current market situation is more complex than this simple logic chain.
Manifestation of hedging properties: As we discussed earlier, the recent Bitcoin price exhibited a “V-shaped” reversal, initially declining and then rising, during worsening geopolitical situations. This is because when risks sharply increase, some funds also view Bitcoin as “digital gold” for hedging, which can create strong buying pressure in the short term, pushing prices up.
Dual property game: Therefore, Bitcoin is currently influenced by two forces simultaneously:
Risk asset property: Rising oil prices → Inflation concerns → Bearish for Bitcoin.
Safe-haven asset property: Geopolitical crisis → Seeking safe haven → Bullish for Bitcoin.
The ultimate direction of the price depends on which of these two forces dominates at a specific moment. However, from the perspective of “shipping demand affecting oil prices,” its initial impact is negative.
The above article is exclusively prepared by the analysis team of (Warm Heart Talk Coin). The article is sent with a delay and is for reference only. If trading is unsatisfactory, or if you want to learn more real-time analysis, please follow my public account to communicate with me. I have years of research experience in the crypto space and welcome everyone to learn.
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