Original ｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina）

Author｜Golem（@web3_golem）

Crazy Monday! After a three-month pause, Bitcoin has once again broken the $80,000 barrier.

The altcoin market has also shown signs of recovery. According to Quantify Crypto data, in the past 24 hours, over 80% of the top 200 altcoins by market capitalization have increased to varying degrees, with DOGE rising over 5.43%, ZEC over 10.78%, and WLFI over 7.06%.

In terms of derivatives, data from Coinglass shows that in the last 12 hours, there were liquidations totaling $286 million across the network, mainly short positions amounting to $251 million, with liquidation events concentrated around Bitcoin breaking the $80,000 mark. Additionally, BTC saw $152 million in liquidations, while ETH had $75.5 million.

This surge in the market is not exclusive to the crypto world. On Monday, Asian stock markets opened sharply higher, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rising 1.9%, erasing losses since the onset of the Iran conflict. Tech stocks rebounded, with SK Hynix's share price soaring nearly 10%, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company jumping over 6%, and Hong Kong's tech stocks also collectively rising, with Xiaomi Group up over 10% and Alibaba (09988.HK) up over 6%.

Meanwhile, according to Gate data, WTI crude oil and Brent crude prices have also seen slight declines, with WTI crude oil prices remaining around $101 per barrel.

Given that both the stock and cryptocurrency markets saw gains on Monday, along with slight fluctuations in oil prices, investors familiar with the situation might guess that financial market manipulator Trump has taken action again.

Market Anticipates Trump's "Operation Freedom" May Open the Strait of Hormuz

On the evening of May 3, Eastern Time, Trump stated that starting Monday (Middle Eastern time), he would help ships leave the Strait of Hormuz. He claimed that many countries unrelated to the current disputes in the Middle East are seeking U.S. assistance to release ships blocked in the Strait of Hormuz; to implement humanitarian aid, the U.S. would safety guide their vessels out of restricted waters, branding this initiative as "Project Freedom."

Following Trump's announcement, the U.S. Central Command also stated that it would provide military support for the rescue operations of ships trapped in the Strait of Hormuz, including missile destroyers, over 100 land-based and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 troops, asserting that this move is in response to Iranian military attacks on commercial vessels passing through the strait.

Such unilateral actions by Trump are likely to anger Iran. As early as May 2, Ali Nikzad, deputy speaker of Iran's Islamic Parliament, emphasized in an interview along the Strait of Hormuz that Iran will not retreat one step from the Strait and stated that the parliament has approved a "Strait of Hormuz Administration Act," which includes permanently banning Israeli vessels from passing through this critical waterway, requiring ships from "hostile countries" to pay "war reparations" to obtain passage permits, and requiring other vessels to obtain authorization from Iran to traverse as well.

Therefore, Iran views Trump's "Operation Freedom" as a violation of U.S. management rights over the Strait of Hormuz. Shortly after Trump announced "Operation Freedom," Ibrahim Azizi, chairman of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Iranian Islamic Parliament, stated that any U.S. intervention in a new maritime order in the Strait of Hormuz would be regarded as a violation of the ceasefire agreement.

On April 8, the U.S. and Iran signed a temporary ceasefire agreement lasting two weeks. As this agreement was about to expire on April 21, Trump announced an indefinite extension to continue negotiations with Iran. Although the U.S. and Iran have ceased hostilities, Iran has maintained control over the Strait of Hormuz during this period, and the waterway has not been fully opened for navigation.

In terms of consequences, if Trump enforces "Operation Freedom," the current situation between the U.S. and Iran may escalate from negotiations back to armed conflict. At that point, not only would the Strait of Hormuz be unable to function normally, but in the long run, the impact of war on global financial markets would overshadow today's gains significantly.

Of course, there is uncertainty about whether the bombastic Trump will actually implement the "Operation Freedom" plan. As of now, it is already Monday morning (May 4) in Middle Eastern time, but there are no reports of U.S. military successfully escorting commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. Is this yet another classic T.A.C.O. (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade?(Related Reading: Did the war win or lose? Trump: It earned)

This Trump-style "wolf is coming" story seems to have become routine for Iran. Iranian scholar Seyed Mohammad Marandi mentioned earlier in late March when Trump manipulated oil prices that "every week at market opening, Trump makes such statements to suppress oil prices." Therefore, when Trump announced the "Project Freedom," Ibrahim Azizi contemptuously remarked that no one would believe (Trump's) such "shifting the burden of responsibility" antics.

While we can't know whether "Operation Freedom" will actually be executed, Trump's urgency to restore normal passage through the Strait of Hormuz is evident, as it not only involves U.S. national interests but also concerns whether President Trump can remain secure in his position.

On May 3, according to the latest ABC/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, Trump's disapproval rate reached 62%, setting a record high in his two terms. With midterm elections approaching, such a support rate is quite unfavorable for Trump, making it urgent for him to achieve a performance that can turn the tide. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is the ideal goal (even though the current issues were caused by him).

On one hand, externally, opening the Strait of Hormuz showcases the U.S.'s global deterrence capability once more; Trump can herald it as a complete victory over Iran, demonstrating America's strength. On the other hand, internally, restoring navigation through the Strait can lower global oil prices, calming the discontent of the American populace and related stakeholders. Meanwhile, the decrease in price levels would also enhance the success rate of new Federal Reserve Chair Waller in persuading other officials to agree to interest rate cuts during the June meeting, injecting vitality into the market. (Related Reading: Powell is stepping down but not leaving; Trump's interest rate cut plan might fall through)

On the morning of May 4, Trump also posted a photo on Truth Social showing him holding several cards, captioned “I have all the cards.” At face value, this appears to be a display of confidence, but often those with the least chance of winning tend to bluster the most.

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