What to know : Bitcoin broke above $81,000 in Asian trading, its highest level since late January, even as broader crypto markets were mixed and macro risks persisted. Options desks that had quietly built cheap upside call ratio structures are now positioned to benefit from a gradual grind higher, with a decisive move above $80,000 expected to turn key risk-reversal gauges positive. The shift in options pricing comes amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and steady central bank policy, with upcoming U.S. earnings and jobs data seen as potential catalysts for further bitcoin volatility.
Bitcoin just gave the options desks the breakout they were positioning for.
The largest crypto crossed $81,000 in Asian hours Tuesday, its highest level since late January, up from $79,000 at the end of U.S. trading hours on Monday and 5.3% higher on the week.
Other majors traded mixed. Ether held $2,379, off 0.1% on the day but up 4.0% on the week. XRP slipped 0.9% to $1.40. Solana dropped 0.9% to $84.84. BNB sat at $626. Dogecoin gave back 1.0% to $0.1117 after last week's run, though it remains the standout on the seven-day tape at 12.4% as futures open interest continues to sit at year-highs.
The move came despite Brent crude paring just to $113 a barrel after surging 5.8% Monday on Iran's disputed missile claim, with WTI near $104.
The macro picture has not actually improved, even as developments in the ongoing U.S.-Iran seem to be losing their grip on bitcoin.
U.S. destroyers Truxtun and Mason transited the Strait of Hormuz overnight, escorting two U.S.-flagged vessels through under what U.S. Central Command described as "coordinated threats." A VTTI oil terminal in Fujairah was struck in an aerial attack. President Donald Trump told Salem News Channel the war may last another two to three weeks, meaning a previously announced four-week ceasefire is fraying.
Options markets are showing a flurry of action with bets on higher prices in the days ahead, Nomura's market making arm Laser Digital flagged in a note shared with CoinDesk on Tuesday.
Bitcoin volatility has been quiet for most of the past week. Traders were not buying much in the way of options protection, and the price was not moving fast enough to justify it. When desks did pay for protection, they paid more for puts (bets on the price falling) than calls (bets on it rising) – the standard playbook in a market that is more worried about a drop than excited about a rally.
But underneath that, there has been quiet demand for cheap upside bets, structured through what traders call call ratio strategies. The trade involves buying call options that pay off if bitcoin rallies a little, and financing those by selling other call options that only pay off if bitcoin rallies a lot. The setup costs almost nothing upfront and benefits if bitcoin grinds higher without ripping past the upper level.
"Should the spot price experience a decisive breakout above $80K, the currently negative BTC risk reversal is expected to move into positive territory," the note said.
A risk reversal is the difference in implied volatility between equally out-of-the-money calls and puts. When it sits negative, the market is pricing more fear of a drop than greed for a rally.
A flip to positive would be the first signal that options markets have actually shifted from cautious to constructive.
All major central banks held rates last week, which Laser Digital said reduces the right-tail distribution of rates and keeps U.S. financial conditions in their current range. Strategy reports earnings Tuesday, and the U.S. nonfarm payrolls print drops Friday. Both can move bitcoin if the surprise is large enough.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
