The urgent need for a “mass extinction” of “junk coins” from the crypto market is not at all a new topic. Cardano Founder Charles Hoskinson and Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin predicted that over 90% of the initial coin offering (ICO) era would fail. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse in 2019 agreed 99% of all cryptocurrencies would vanish.

The sentiment remains unchanged. Arthur Hayes said in his keynote at Consensus Miami 2026 that “99% of altcoins could eventually go to zero,” citing a shift in fiat liquidity as the only real driver for the few that survive.

Ben Cowen, a market analyst and founder of Into the Cryptoverse, told CoinDesk the purge has been underway since 2021, but a more meaningful “junk-coin cleansing” is necessary before bitcoin can enter a sustainable bull cycle.

With bitcoin hovering over $81,000 on Thursday for the first time since late January, many might believe the crypto winter is over, as Michael Saylor recently suggested. However, a growing chorus of analysts warns this might be a “relief rally” built on apathy rather than euphoria. They point to untouched liquidity sitting below $60,000 and the 200-day hurdle.

The junk coin purge must occur

Bitcoin is currently bumping up against its 200-day moving average of roughly $82,300. Historically, failing to settle above these lines leads to a sharp “drawdown” as buyers lose confidence. If bitcoin fails to flip $88,880 into support in the coming days, a pullback toward $58,000–$62,000 is the most probable outcome, according to Cohen?

“For the bottom to be confirmed, price needs to clear 88,880 and hold—not wick through, not retest and fail. That puts the most recent cohort back in profit and removes the first layer of sell pressure,” technical analysts at CryptoQuant posted on X Thursday,

“For the global cryptocurrency market to achieve a genuine, sustainable bull run, a painful but necessary purge of thousands of speculative ‘junk coins’ must occur first,” said Cowen.

That shift is reflected in capital concentrating into bitcoin as weaker projects disappear. While GeckoTerminal has seen more than 25 million token deployments, the “mortality rate” has reached record highs. According to its data, over 11.6 million failed in 2025 alone, largely due to the collapse of the over-saturated memecoin sector.

“A clear indication of that is bitcoin’s dominance, which has been increasing since then,” Cowen said.

While bitcoin dominance gradually fell with the rise of altcoins from over 99% in 2013 to roughly 33% in 2018, it has since trended higher, reclaiming 60% in late April. Ark Invest recently suggested it could reach 70% by 2030.

“Bitcoin dominance when seen with stablecoins included is misleading,” Cowen said. When stablecoins are excluded, his firm estimates dominance is already above 67%, reflecting capital rotating out of weaker tokens. “Capital is not rotating into higher-risk assets, but instead consolidating into Bitcoin or moving to the sidelines,” Cowen wrote in his April 2026 Crypto Risk Memo.

The data of decay

Cowen’s report added that “the current cycle has been defined by a persistent downtrend in participation since 2021,” with bitcoin dominance rising while the advance-decline index for the top 100 cryptocurrencies trends lower

Matthew Pinnock, COO at Altura DeFi, noted that the explosive growth of automated launchpads like Pump.fun has ballooned the number of weak tokens, leading to an 86% failure rate among 2025's new launches.

Luke Nolan, senior researcher at CoinShares, said the token-level purge has “already largely happened,” pointing to a collapse in memecoin market capitalization from about $150 billion in December 2024 to under $50 billion. “Ninety-five percent of tokens being worthless is fair,” Nolan said.

A gloomy short-term bitcoin outlook

Despite the $81,000 milestone, Cowen remains cautious. “I think BTC is in a bear market and will likely drift lower as the year goes on, with headwinds like geopolitical tensions and the Fed delaying rate cuts,” Cowen doubts “bitcoin will see an ATH in 2026. This is more of a reset year with time-based capitulation.”

Veteran trader Peter Brandt said Monday he believes bitcoin will rise to $250,000 in 2029, but only after a prolonged bottoming phase that may last until September and October. Michael Terpin, known as the “Crypto Godfather”, said bitcoin needs to fall to roughly $57,000 in the next four to five months before entering a bull phase. He dismissed a BTC ATH this year.

“I think this business cycle is a tough one as in order for the higher risk assets - like bitcoin and ether - to do well, we would need a crisis to justify much looser monetary policy,” Cowen stated. “But until that crisis happens, crypto will likely bleed to other asset classes.”

Bitcoin has already declined from a cycle high near $126,000 to a low near $60,000, a drawdown of over 50%, consistent with prior late-cycle environments, Cowen concluded.