The current market is undergoing a macro adjustment phase dominated by inflation repricing. If Bitcoin can continue to follow the Nasdaq's trends, its current price should theoretically be close to $140,000. However, since October 2025, the divergence between the two has begun to widen significantly. The core reason behind this is the resurgence of inflation in the United States, and the market's expectations for interest rate cuts are also beginning to reverse.

Recent data shows that the U.S. CPI has risen from 2.4% to 3.8%, while the PPI has increased from 2.9% to 6.0%. Meanwhile, the interest rate market is gradually retracting some pricing on interest rate cuts in 2026. For Bitcoin, the previous liquidity easing expectations that supported its market are beginning to weaken. At the same time, the escalation of the situation in Iran has driven oil prices up approximately 40% since late February 2026, and rising energy costs have further strengthened market concerns about inflation.

From the current pricing perspective, the market still tends to view this round of inflation as a temporary pressure disturbance. However, with the increasing interconnectedness of energy, interest rates, and risk preference, the market is also beginning to reassess the risk that a high interest rate environment may last longer. In this process, Bitcoin's performance has begun to significantly lag behind technology stocks that can benefit from nominal inflation.

Inflation Repricing: Why Bitcoin Struggles to Benefit from a High Inflation Environment

Most investors often equate “monetary expansion” with “inflation,” but the two actually correspond to completely different market stages. In recent years, the key driving force behind Bitcoin's rise has fundamentally come from liquidity easing and interest rate cut expectations, rather than inflation itself. In December 2022, the BIT model had already indicated that price pressures would significantly ease, signaling that central bank policies might subsequently shift to release signals for interest rate cuts. This also became an important starting point for the rise of technology stocks and Bitcoin from 2023 to 2025.

However, the issue is that when inflation truly begins to rise again, market logic will change. Even if actual interest rate hikes have not yet materialized, the mere expectation that “interest rates will remain high for a longer time” is enough to prompt Bitcoin's repricing. As a typical long-duration asset, Bitcoin is extremely sensitive to interest rate paths, and once rate cut expectations are withdrawn, its valuation is likely to come under pressure.

Meanwhile, unlike stocks, Bitcoin cannot achieve structural returns under a certain inflation environment. Stocks can not only benefit from rising nominal income but also can reduce the actual burden of debt to some extent. Conversely, Bitcoin has neither debts that can be diluted by inflation nor cash flows that can expand with inflation, making it difficult to directly benefit from this round of inflation rebound. This also explains the recent significant divergence between the Nasdaq and Bitcoin.

From Energy Shock to Rate Constraints: The Market Begins to Reassess the Liquidity Path

The real concern for the current market is not just “whether inflation is back,” but whether high inflation will force the Federal Reserve to keep rates elevated for a longer time. The BIT model predicts that U.S. CPI may even rise further to 6.0% in the future. If this scenario comes to fruition, then Bitcoin may experience temporary pullbacks around each CPI and PPI data release.

At the same time, although the crude oil futures curve indicates that oil prices will gradually fall in the future, it is currently difficult to return to pre-war levels of about $63. The market has already priced in about a 15% long-term premium in oil prices, reflecting real supply bottlenecks. Starting from the current oil price of about $101, the market expects crude oil prices to fall to $89 by September 2026, $80 by January 2027, and further down to $73 by January 2028.

In addition to geopolitical and energy factors, the expansion of AI infrastructure may also be changing the inflation path the market has previously been accustomed to. Data center construction, electricity demand, and infrastructure capital expenditure are continuously increasing energy pressure. This means that the time inflation remains above target levels may be longer than the market previously expected. In this environment, technology stocks can benefit from order growth and improved profit expectations, while Bitcoin is more likely to be suppressed by a high interest rate environment.

Overall, the core of the current market changes does not lie in the damage to Bitcoin’s long-term logic, but in the fact that after the resurgence of inflation, the market is reassessing the paths of interest rates and liquidity. In the short term, a high inflation environment may continue to suppress Bitcoin’s performance and cause it to temporarily underperform the Nasdaq. However, this does not mean that the market is turning bearish; rather, it more accurately reflects a slowdown in Bitcoin's upward momentum. As the market begins to factor in liquidity easing expectations again in the future, Bitcoin may still regain support.

The above views are partly derived from BIT on Target, contact us to obtain the complete report of BIT on Target.

Disclaimer: The market has risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading digital assets may carry significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.

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