Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
Macro Market
On Tuesday, a tech stock sell-off led to significant fluctuations in U.S. stocks, with the Nasdaq index dropping more than 4% at one point, closing down 0.97% below last Friday's low. The S&P 500 index fell 0.26% to 7386.65 points, while the Dow Jones index rose 0.17% to 50872.11 points, supported by defensive sectors like consumer goods.
Geopolitical tensions escalated again. In response to the downing of a U.S. military helicopter, the U.S. has completed strikes on 20 targets within Iran, and Iran retaliated against U.S. military bases in Jordan and Bahrain. As a result, the crude oil market experienced significant volatility, with WTI crude oil briefly falling below $87, ultimately closing down more than 3% around $88.50.
Gold prices were also affected, with spot gold falling to the $4200 mark, hitting a nearly three-month low and dropping below the 200-day moving average. Standard Chartered Bank analysts pointed out that with rising inflation and increasing real yields, ETF funds are accelerating their exit. The current ETP holding structure is relatively fragile and may amplify downward price pressure, with the next important technical support around $4100. Notably, Citigroup analysts mentioned in a report on Monday that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed before the end of summer, gold prices could fall to $3500. Nevertheless, Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, remains bullish, believing that $4000 is a solid bottom and expects it to rise to $10,000.
The U.S. inflation data for May will be released tonight at 8:30 PM. Wall Street institutions generally predict that driven by soaring energy prices, the overall CPI for May year-on-year may rise to 4.2% to 4.3%, reaching a nearly three-year high; however, the core CPI month-on-month is expected to be only 0.17% to 0.22%, significantly lower than market consensus. The cooling of sectors like housing and auto insurance may be key to the slowdown in core inflation. The market is currently closely monitoring this data to gauge the policy stance of the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh at the interest rate meeting next week.
U.S. Stock Dynamics
U.S. stocks performed poorly after the AI boom faded, with tech stocks facing heavy sell-offs. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped as much as 8.6% at one point, and ARM and Marvell Technology fell over 10% in a single day, while Micron Technology and Intel also dropped 7% and 5%, respectively. Apple stock plummeted 3.64% after failing to deliver unexpected surprises at the WWDC conference, leading the decline. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) announced up to $7 billion in equity financing to purchase AI server components, with severe dilution concerns causing its stock price to drop over 10% in a single day, closing down 7.62%.
The optical communications sector experienced a "bloodbath" triggered by research reports. The well-known AI research institution SemiAnalysis released a report stating that the production ramp-up of Nvidia's 800VDC power architecture and CPO (co-packaged optics) will be delayed until 2028, a prediction that drastically shook the industry chain. Aixtron fell 17% in a single day, Lumentum dropped 8%, and chip giant COHERENT fell 11.44%. Despite Nvidia Vice President Gilad Shainer vigorously refuting at the Computex exhibition, claiming CPO is "the most exciting technology right now" and will ramp up production in the second half of the year, this did not halt the spread of panic, as the market began betting on NPO and traditional pluggable modules as alternative solutions during the transition period.
Meanwhile, Oracle will release its earnings report after the U.S. market closes on Wednesday. The market generally expects revenue to reach $19.1 billion, with TD Cowen and UBS raising their target prices to $300 and $285, respectively, believing that there is still space for acceleration in the cloud infrastructure business. Jefferies analyst Brent Hill stated that strong demand in the cloud infrastructure business will be a key factor driving the stock price, and the options market shows traders expect the company's stock price to fluctuate by up to 11% in the week following the earnings report.
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin continued to face pressure, with a net outflow of $77.43 million from Bitcoin ETFs yesterday, and total assets falling back to $77.58 billion, completely wiping out the incremental funds since Trump's election victory.
The market is cautiously awaiting the upcoming U.S. CPI data, with analysts pointing out that if inflation remains high, it may further undermine Bitcoin's rationale as a hedge. Research from Bitwise shows that Bitcoin often reacts before traditional markets, suggesting its current trend may signal broader risk adjustments. The Glassnode MVRV model warns that once the $60,000 level is decisively lost, the deep value range around $50,000 will become the next relentless magnet.
Ethereum is also weak, with options market data showing that outstanding contracts for ETH have declined by 25% from the May highs, indicating diminishing investor confidence in future price trends. Although institutions like Bitmine have taken the opportunity to purchase $122 million worth of 75,000 ETH, analyst Ash Crypto warns that if it drops below $1500, Ethereum could plummet to $1000.
Frequent black swan events on the blockchain have intensified panic; Sahara AI was rumored to crash due to its provision of liquidity through the CCIP cross-chain bridge, with its tokens halving nearly 60% in a single day; while the Humanity project suffered a devastating blow after hackers invaded employee computers and massively issued 1 billion H tokens, with prices for H and SAHARA tokens both rebounding somewhat.
Today's Outlook:
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: SAHARA, WLD, XRP, BTC, ETH
Magic Eden (ME) will unlock approximately 172 million tokens on June 11, valued around $10.4 million
HOME (HOME) will unlock approximately 750 million tokens, valued around $40.2 million
Today's top gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization: BEAT up 48.7%, UB up 21.2%, WBT up 13.3%, STABLE up 12.9%, MORPHO up 7.6%.
Asia-Pacific Market
The Asia-Pacific stock markets failed to remain immune, experiencing a sharp plunge amid the dual blows of the Middle East conflict and the collapse of U.S. tech stocks.
The South Korean KOSPI index faced an extremely severe sell-off, plummeting 6.46% and triggering a circuit breaker at one point; the Japanese Nikkei 225 index also fell over 1600 points, losing 2.49%. Causeway Capital portfolio manager Arjun Jayaraman pointed out that the proliferation of highly leveraged retail funds and new types of ETFs in the Japanese and South Korean markets is exacerbating this panic volatility.
Semiconductor giants became the hardest hit in the Asia-Pacific market sell-off. Despite positive news from the Korea Economic Daily about Samsung Electronics planning to build an advanced packaging plant in Gwangju, it appeared powerless in the face of macro panic, with Samsung Electronics' stock price plunging over 7%, and SK Hynix dropping more than 8%; Japanese chip companies similarly retreated, with Advantest and Kioxia both falling nearly 4%. Moreover, even SoftBank Group faced challenges in trying to secure a $6 billion loan by using OpenAI shares as collateral, leading to a single-day stock price crash of over 9%.
Amid these cries of despair, the A-share market instead followed its own logic due to strong data and World Cup expectations. China's May export data shined brightly, increasing by 19.4% year-on-year in dollar terms, with integrated circuits surging 111% and computer equipment soaring 66%; ANZ strategist Xing Zhaopeng remarked that the global AI hardware frenzy is substantively reshaping China's trade pattern. On the consumer side, with less than 48 hours left until the World Cup games open in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, the "midnight viewing" night snack economy generated by the time difference has ignited the beer sector, with Huiquan Beer hitting the daily limit, and Zhujiang Beer and Yanjing Beer both surging over 5%, becoming a rare bright spot in a gloomy market.
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