Fed's Decision Eve: Market Awaits Direction, How to Position Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Gold?
Tonight, the Federal Reserve meeting is about to conclude.
The biggest contradiction in the market currently is not whether to raise interest rates, but rather the future monetary policy stance leaning hawkish or dovish.
The market has recently started to trade on hawkish expectations, with Bitcoin retracting from a high of 66924, falling below the critical level of 64000 yesterday, reaching a low near 62800.
So the question arises:
This drop, is it the early release of bad news, or is the trend genuinely changing?
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BTC: The red upward structure continues, blue downward pressure remains
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently in a clear trend choice phase.
Above:
The blue downward trendline forms pressure.
Key resistance:
65000-65500
If after tonight's news, BTC can stabilize above 65500 and break through the downward trendline, then the previous high of 66900 may be challenged again.
Further targets:
66000-66900
Even 67500 area
However, if the rebound fails to break through 65500, it indicates that bearish pressure still exists.
Below, pay special attention to:
63800
62800
Especially 62800, which is an important defensive level in this round of upward structure.
Falling below 62800, the market may look further for:
Support around 61600.
Old Jin's View:
Holding 62800 is a normal pullback in an upward trend; breaking 65500 is what allows the bulls to regain the initiative.
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ETH: Following BTC, waiting for emotional release
Ethereum has recently been clearly influenced by market sentiment.
It lags behind significantly when prices rise, and swings more violently when they drop.
Currently focusing on:
Below:
Support area 1850-1880
If BTC can stabilize, Ethereum is expected to retest:
1930-1950
Even challenge the previous high region.
But if BTC falls below 62800, Ethereum may again release emotional pressure.
So in the short term, don’t look at ETH alone; the core still relies on Bitcoin’s direction.
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Gold: Focus on the Dollar and U.S. Treasury Direction
The recent trend of gold essentially revolves around:
Dollar strength and weakness
U.S. Treasury yields
Rate cut expectations
To engage in a tug-of-war.
If tonight the Fed releases dovish signals:
The dollar is under pressure, gold may have a chance to strengthen further.
Focus on:
Support below:
4000-4050
Resistance above:
4100-4140
Further look after breaking:
4180-4200
If the Fed's attitude is hawkish, gold may see a short-term pullback, but as long as the core support holds, the trend has not completely changed.
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Tonight's Trading Logic
Market sentiment is most likely to show:
The first wave is a false breakout;
The second wave is the true direction.
So tonight, don't rush to grab the first K-line.
Key observations:
① Can BTC stabilize above 65500
② Is the support at 62800 effective
③ Feedback from the dollar and U.S. Treasuries on risk assets
The market will always have opportunities.
What’s truly important is to maintain positions and rhythm until certainty appears.
Old Jin still says:
Wait for the shoe to drop, to await the right timing.
Once the direction comes out, follow the trend.
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