After experiencing a sharp drop yesterday and falling below $63,000, the cryptocurrency market welcomed a rebound today, recovering to the $64,000 mark in the morning. As of the time of writing, the price is $64,500, with a 24-hour increase of about 1.72%. Ethereum has also risen, surpassing the $1,900 mark again, with the current price at $1,911 and a 24-hour increase of about 2%.

The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision at 2 PM Eastern Time on the 29th (2:00 AM Beijing Time on the 30th) after two days of closed-door meetings. Chair Powell will hold a press conference afterward.

According to the expectations of most market investors, the Fed will maintain the benchmark interest rate in the 3.5%-3.75% range for the fifth consecutive time. However, with the year-on-year increase in U.S. consumer prices falling to 3.5% in June and inflation expected to rise again due to Trump's war with Iran causing significant fluctuations in oil prices and other commodities, the market is increasingly betting on the likelihood of an interest rate hike.

This decision is filled with uncertainties and is rather rare. One reason is that Powell has publicly refused to clarify his views on the economic outlook, which is part of his push for reform, aiming to reduce the Fed's advance communication of policy signals to the market.

Inside the Fed, the "hawkish" faction advocating for rate hikes to combat inflation is increasing, so I want to remind all investors to manage their risk appropriately if you have positions. If you do not have positions, consider trading based on the decisions announced after the data is released.

Bitcoin Four-hour Chart

To conclude: on the current 4-hour level, I still feel it's a rebound after an oversold correction and not a genuine upward trend. What truly decides the movement is not the technicals, but tonight’s Fed FOMC interest rate decision and Powell’s speech.

First, the MACD shows that the bearish strength is weakening, and the rebound is continuing. The MACD has returned to near the zero axis, with the green momentum bars continuing to shorten and beginning to turn red. This indicates that the previous bearish strength from 66,926 to 62,700 has clearly declined, and the bulls are regaining control. However, I must remind you that although the DIF has turned up, it has not yet formed a particularly strong bullish crossover. Therefore, this is a corrective trend, not a main upward trend. As long as the MACD red bars continue to expand, Bitcoin still has a chance to challenge the resistance levels upwards.

Second, the KDJ has reformed a golden cross, but is about to enter a high position. The K and D values continue to rise, with the J value increasing the fastest, indicating that short-term funds are rushing for a rebound. However, once KDJ approaches 60, it is easy for it to become dulled again. If tonight's news stimulates a rise, it may easily form a death cross at a high position. So don’t chase the highs tonight.

Third, the Bollinger Bands BOLL price has returned to the middle track. The current price is back above the BOLL middle track, and the middle track is beginning to level out, which is a relatively positive signal. Next, we will focus on whether it can stabilize above the middle track tonight. If it does, the upper track will gradually open, and the next target will be between $65,300 and $66,000. However, if the news comes out and it dips below the middle track again, this rise is just a false signal, and the price may easily retest around $63,000.

Fourth, the Fibonacci levels. There are a few key points to watch. The first resistance is at $64,800, corresponding to the 50% level, which has just been broken today. If it can stabilize tonight, the market will continue to look high. The second resistance is at $65,300, corresponding to the 61.8% golden ratio. This is tonight's biggest bullish-bearish dividing line, and if it breaks here, the market can basically challenge between $66,000 and $66,900. The first support is around $64,300, corresponding to the 38.2% level, which is a short-term lifeline. If it breaks below, the market may easily retest $63,600. The second support is at $62,700, also the starting point of this round of rebound. If it breaks below again, it indicates the end of the rebound and bearish control returns.

Now combine this with tonight's interest rate decision. What truly decides the market will be these scenarios.

The first scenario is slightly bullish. If the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged, and Powell's speech signals that inflation is continuing to decline, with a possibility of rate cuts remaining in the year, and no continued hawkish signals, then the dollar index may easily fall, benefiting risk assets. Bitcoin will likely first surge to $65,000, then challenge $65,300, and see $66,000 afterward. If the funds’ sentiment heats up further, there may even be a chance to challenge $66,900 again.

The second scenario is hawkish. If Powell emphasizes that interest rates need to remain high, there are no plans for rate cuts yet, and inflation risks remain high, then the dollar will strengthen, and Bitcoin will likely see a quick rise followed by a fall. Often, interest rate decisions do this; they spike immediately upon announcement, then reverse within a minute. So tonight, don’t chase the first bullish candle.

The third scenario, which I feel has the highest probability, is that the Fed will likely remain steady and the speech won’t swing particularly dovish or hawkish. In this case, the market may first experience significant volatility and then return to the technicals. If it stabilizes above $64,300, the market still has a chance to continue fluctuating upwards; if it breaks below $64,300, it may retest $63,600 or even $62,700 support.

What will I do tonight? First, do not chase the news. The first five to fifteen minutes after the interest rate decision is announced, volatility is usually very intense, and the direction may quickly reverse. Second, trade only after confirmation. If the 4-hour chart effectively stabilizes above $65,300, then consider looking towards $66,000 to $66,900. If it breaks below $64,300 and continues to weaken, I will wait for a retest near $63,600 or $62,700 to see if there are new signals before trying to bottom fish.

To conclude, as I often say: news determines volatility, while technicals determine direction. The ones who will truly profit tonight are not those who run the fastest, but those who wait for confirmation of direction before taking action.

Instead of giving you a 100% accurate suggestion, it's better to provide you with a correct mindset and trend. Teaching someone to fish is better than giving them fish; advice can earn you temporarily, but learning a strategy can earn you for a lifetime!

Writing time: (2026-07-29, 19:00)

　　(Note - Written by Master Discussing Coins) Disclaimer: There is a delay in online publication; the above suggestions are for reference only. Investing carries risks; exercise caution when entering the market!

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