The whole crypto market is in a holding pattern, eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve’s next move.
Bitcoin is hovering near $64,000 while the Fear & Greed Index sits at 29—deep in "fear" territory. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, which is expected to hold rates at 3.50–3.75%, but could rattle risk assets with a hawkish tone from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Equity markets are similarly cautious.
Ethereum, the second largest digital asset by market cap, opened Wednesday at $1,919.80, tagged a session high of $1,926.10, and has since slipped to $1,890.60—down 1.53% on the day. The move is a modest setback after a sharp recovery from 2026 lows reached earlier this month.
That bounce has been quietly supported by institutional flows: According to SosoValue, ETH has registered three consecutive weeks of net inflows, the strongest run since April.
The death cross—where the 50-day EMA (exponential moving average of the last 50 days) trades below the 200-day—is still firmly in place, keeping the structural bias bearish. EMAs show where average price has been over different time periods; when the shorter-term average crosses below the longer one, it's a classic signal that the medium-term trend remains down. Until that flips, the burden of proof is on bulls.
What has changed is the Average Directional Index, or ADX, which now reads 23.2 with buying pressure (DI+) outpacing selling pressure (DI–). ADX measures trend strength regardless of direction; readings above 20 suggest something real may be forming. Right now, bulls are technically "winning" the internal tug-of-war—just not convincingly enough to confirm a real trend yet.
The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, sits at 54.7—neutral territory showing a small buying interest. RSI measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold on a scale of 0 to 100; readings between 40 and 60 give no strong directional signal. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator has just released after a period of compression, with momentum reading 0.71 positive—a slight lean toward the upside, but one that needs a catalyst to follow through.
The Fibonacci retracement for ETH's recent leg—measured from the $1,846 low to the $1,980 top—puts the golden zone (the highest probability of market cooldown) between $1,897 and $1,913. Price is sitting just below it, making this the critical near-term pivot: resistance on the way up, and the threshold bulls need to reclaim to keep the recovery thesis credible.
On Myriad, the prediction market operated by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, traders remain broadly biased toward a dump to $1,500 before any rally to $3,000.
Sentiment peaked at 83% in favor of the dump in mid-June when ETH was near $1,682, according to Decrypt. The recovery since then has trimmed those odds—but with ETH sitting 58% below $3,000 and just 21% above $1,500, the math still leans bearish.
Why the bullish case could work
A Fed hold paired with a softer-than-expected tone from Warsh could be the macro unlock. ETF inflows are real and sustained. If ETH closes above $1,913 today or in the next session, it reclaims the golden zone and puts $1,944 in play—the 23.6% Fibonacci extension.
Beyond that, $1,980 marks the top of the current Fib leg and the next serious ceiling.
Why the bearish case is more likely
A hawkish Fed or any rate-hike signal sends ETH straight back to test the $1,874–$1,846 support band. The death cross isn't flipping soon—the 200-day EMA is sitting near $2,174, still well above current price. ADX at 23.2 hasn't yet crossed the 25 threshold needed to confirm a genuine trend, but with the Fed as the wild card, direction is a coin flip.
Most of the chart's story still points south until ETH clears $1,980 convincingly.
The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.
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