Whether it's Bitcoin or Ethereum, since the beginning of a short-term rebound, Bitcoin has surged from 64256 to 65752 and Ethereum from 1873 to 1982. Overall, Ethereum shows a stronger momentum, and the rise of other cryptocurrencies is not significant, just fluctuations within a range, so rest assured it will come down soon as there are insufficient reserve funds. To review simply, there are too many topics to discuss today; let me think about it first. I have been meeting frequently with friends in the industry, most of whom are seasoned users, and I can sense that everyone's confidence is being eroded. Whether from a strategic perspective or due to the multiple factors accumulated from the earlier explosive growth in the tech sector, the cryptocurrency market is not increasing but rather declining, which can be said to somewhat defy the truth. Observing negative returns, yet the future lacks any actual strategic support, the critical point is that this decline has not had any substantial impact; it originates from a series of operations by certain platforms, leading to all cryptocurrencies being halved, and so far there are still no recovery signals.

Most friends tend to be obsessed with the present, focusing solely on short-term market trends, and overlooking the future planning of cryptocurrencies. In the following sections, I will try to be objective and provide a simple outline of future cryptocurrency definitions; please be patient, as this article contains a lot of valuable information. When discussing trends, it's essential to mention Trump's views on the cryptocurrency market, which boils down to gathering gray area funds to rescue the American economy (this is obviously already bankrupt). The second point is to reduce the power of the Federal Reserve and reclaim currency pricing power (this seems to have been agreed upon peacefully). I have explained the first point extensively earlier; its bankruptcy leads to subsequent energy struggles, while the bankruptcy of the second point will promote the progress of cryptocurrency legislation. My confidence largely comes from the recognition by the American side, including the current expansion of the market, which is the only channel for some economically underdeveloped countries that want to bypass the dollar system; the value of this channel cannot be estimated.

Secondly, many people believe that the current trend indicates the end of the cryptocurrency market. I do not share this view because this trend combined with the information aspect resembles the early stages of legalization, which is essentially a return to securitization. First comes legislation, defining what can and cannot be done, and only then comes further refinement. This is also why I have been focusing on investing heavily in listed cryptocurrencies; I clearly understand what it means for those already listed if this path successfully runs through. The future of Bitcoin, Ethereum, SOL, and DOGE is very likely to resemble that of indices, with the dependent cryptocurrencies being the specific companies. How many securitized companies will be completely digitized in the future? This is the trend of the cryptocurrency market; at least integrating blockchain technology will entirely eliminate data falsification issues, making all companies more transparent. I believe this is what both the Americans and all countries want to see; the current trend also suggests a shift in this direction.

However, I did not properly assess the pain period of this transformation and was overly naive about some politicized thoughts; particularly regarding the misjudgment of the situation in Iran, which directly delayed cryptocurrency legislation by a year, and there is even a possibility of a government shutdown in the United States in September. This will create pressure on interest rate cuts and future cryptocurrency strategies, pushing the timeline back. Recently, USDC data has sparked my great interest; USDT's circulating market value has reached 183.9 billion, while USDC has reached 72.4 billion, which you all need to be vigilant about; unknowingly, USDC's market share is increasing, and once it reaches a certain share, it will eventually act against USDT. The Americans will not hand over the pricing power of the cryptocurrency market to a single company. The path to compliance is essentially a transfer of power, and the exchange of power is capital turnover. From the current scale of capital, frequent turnover has consistently occurred in a declining range, with the core chip exchange area concentrated between 60000 and 70000.

The rebound timing of the bull market can now be roughly estimated; my perspective differs from many friends, and you can also view it as one viewpoint. Most economists predict that the outbreak of a bear market in the financial market will concentrate within the 27-29-year range. The support for the bear market view lies in the saturation of AI; from the current American AI market perspective, it indeed encounters significant issues. The competition between the two is also extremely fierce; reusable aircraft have directly caused Musk to evaporate 500 billion, with the subsequent AI model leading to evaporation in the American AI sector and even the semiconductor sector. This has prompted many to ponder where these funds should concentrate. The only unfortunate point is that Bitcoin itself possesses anti-inflation properties. Theoretically, a financial crisis caused by inflation should not affect the cryptocurrency market and might even benefit cryptocurrency applications. But you need to consider one point: the majority of the current cryptocurrency whales are still supported by American tech companies; BlackRock, MicroStrategy, and Musk himself hold a substantial amount of shares in the American stock market. Under the impact of a financial crisis, will they withdraw funds from the cryptocurrency market? I believe the answer to this question is very clear.

Even so, my thoughts differ from the voices in the market. The key point lies in the current interest rate cut issue, which is the signal released today. In my understanding, this leans towards a rate hike signal, and the entire bearish sentiment will once again shroud for nearly a month; the current confidence is still in a loosening cycle, but there are issues with expectations that are not insurmountable. Especially recent non-farm payroll data has increased the probability of rate cuts, and it will not be too fast to end the easing cycle in the short term. The domestic signals are also very clear; early this year, it has been determined that monetary easing policies will continue for the coming years. I also hope everyone pays attention to other markets. American rate hikes will bring gold back into a bull market, and the cryptocurrency market will probably be affected, so once the rate hikes start, you can begin purchasing gold to hedge against cryptocurrency losses. Market feedback is also very timely, with a decline followed by a recovery, and further declines are still expected.

I have many theories that are explained in advance, with market movements following. The exchange rate issue, which you had not noticed earlier, is similar. It is evident that overseas there is a significant prejudice against the CNY exchange rate, with the loudest outcries coming from the EU and the United States, both longing for an appreciation of the exchange rate, causing domestic products to lose competitiveness. As long as the current situation can be stabilized, it will be a tremendous blow to the Americans and the Europeans. After trial and error, as long as it does not reach extremes, capital will still return to the cryptocurrency market, which is also why stablecoins are being vigorously promoted lately; this will also expand the stablecoin market further. Remember, without any substantial measures, the signals released by Americans might not be a market rescue but rather a bubble burst. Not lowering interest rates could mean completely abandoning the tech sector, while rate cuts would still allow for the possibility of delaying the arrival of a bear market. The cryptocurrency market will be linked to market fluctuations, so do not hold out too much hope. The recent trend is still bearish, and in the coming days, you will see the bearish market you were hoping for, which may even break our earlier estimated support at 62000!

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