Recently, in this round of adjustments, on the surface, AI concept assets lead the decline, while BTC and ETH have shown relative resilience. However, the off-chain sentiment is far from as calm as the price curve might suggest: a previously dormant whale address, bc1qyr, suddenly came into action, depositing 625 BTC to the institutional platform FalconX, amounting to approximately 39.96 million dollars at the time. Yet, according to a single source, this overall position is currently suffering from more than 20 million dollars in unrealized losses. On the other side, the Binance contract account marked as "smart money," ESP bull, has accumulated losses of over 2.4 million dollars in the past three days, topping the loss leaderboard, with the BTC long position alone carrying approximately 4.05 million dollars in unrealized losses (according to a single source). In a market where BTC has been relatively strong, the simultaneous troubles of the whale and smart money have made what should be viewed as a "safe haven" asset appear precarious. At this time of massive losses and anticipated sell pressure, the well-known trader Doctor Profit chose to take profits on his previous BTC short near the 120,000 dollar mark and began to dollar-cost average into BTC and ETH after July 18. He acknowledges that this sell-off is mainly concentrated in the AI sector, while BTC and ETH exhibit relative resilience. However, he also reminds that there's still a risk of further downturn in the overall market. Thus, during this same period, one side faces panic from the loss-ridden whales and frustrated smart money, while the well-known trader adds to mainstream assets against the trend. Whether BTC has already approached a local bottom is becoming a new debate surrounding the actions of large holders on-chain.

Silent Whale Emerges: 625 BTC Involved

At the same timeline of debating "whether it's reached a local bottom," the whale address bc1qyr, which had been silent on-chain for over a year, suddenly broke its silence. According to public materials, this address had almost no significant transfer records in the past year, but recently, it deposited 625 BTC to the institutional platform FalconX, amounting to approximately 39.96 million dollars at that time. FalconX is generally viewed as an institutional trading or custody platform in the market; when such addresses receive substantial BTC, it's usually interpreted as the holder preparing for potential sell-offs, hedging, or asset reallocation, rather than simply switching to a cold wallet.

More glaring is the unrealized loss state behind this transaction. According to a single source, bc1qyr's overall position is currently in excess of 20 million dollars in unrealized losses. Although the specific entry time and cost have not been disclosed, it is certain that this is no longer a "slight pullback," but rather a quite apparent drawdown on paper. When a long-dormant whale opts to push 625 BTC towards an institutional platform while in deep unrealized loss, it may face pressure from itself or its backing financiers: whether to acknowledge losses and reduce positions, or hand over the chips to a professional institution for more proactive risk management. The outside world cannot know. But for market sentiment, this action at least indicates that even large holders are beginning to adopt a more defensive stance in response to this round of adjustments.

Smart Money Suffer Massive Losses: ESP Bull Fails

In contrast to the on-chain whales choosing to "hand over coins to institutions," the contracts side of "smart money" has been educated by the market. According to a single source, the Binance contract account ESP bull has long been marked as a professional trader account and still holds approximately 94 contract positions. Although the direction and structure have not been fully disclosed, in the last three days, it has accumulated losses exceeding 2.4 million dollars, directly topping the loss leaderboard. Even more striking is that its BTC long position currently has an unrealized loss of about 4.05 million dollars, and in the context of relatively stable BTC prices at this stage, such a paper loss means that the risk exposure of the long position itself has been amplified.

Numerically speaking, ESP bull is a typical "multi-asset, heavily leveraged long" strategy: in a volatile market, densely stacked long contracts essentially expose high-risk leverage, and if the market doesn't move in the expected direction quickly, the profit model can easily be turned on its head. Materials have not disclosed the specific leverage multiple, margin structure, and liquidation range of this account, nor has any public information indicated whether it has started to reduce positions or liquidate key holdings. However, just the fact that "smart money" has lost millions of dollars in a short time is enough to shake the market's mythical expectations of professional accounts. For participants who are already cautious in sentiment, when even traders labeled as smart money are deeply suffering unrealized losses in this round of adjustments, many will begin to reassess: in this currently intense environment, blindly following so-called "smart money longs" itself could be a risk that requires extra pricing.

Doctor Profit Turns Bullish

Unlike the "smart money" still enduring losses in long positions, the well-known trader Doctor Profit had already predicted the direction before this round of adjustments. According to a single source, he previously established a BTC short position near the 120,000 dollar mark, and as the market retraced, this short position remained profitable, with him opting to take profits and exit on July 18, locking in prior gains instead of betting on a more extreme decline.

Interestingly, after closing the substantial short position, his direction did not remain on the bearish side. Doctor Profit publicly stated that he has begun to dollar-cost average into BTC and ETH, shifting from purely bearish to gradually going long, though he has not heavily invested all at once, and the specific amounts and frequency of his purchases have not been disclosed. In his framework, this round of sell-off is mainly concentrated in AI-related assets, while BTC and ETH exhibit relative resilience; even if he still judges that the broader market may have further downward space, he chooses to hedge the risk of "not necessarily bottoming" with time and pace. This shift of admitting risks while gradually accumulating BTC/ETH itself reflects that some veteran traders have already begun to shift their chips from the wildly fluctuating AI sector to relatively sturdy mainstream assets.

AI Weakens, BTC/ETH Shows Resilience

When viewed broadly, it can be seen that the most concentrated sell-off isn't in BTC and ETH, but in the previously leading AI concept assets: relevant tokens have shown a significant withdrawal in a short time, while BTC and ETH have more exhibited slow dips or narrow fluctuations in the same window, not following the AI sector's deep downturn. It is also in this comparison of "who falls harder" that the relative stability of BTC/ETH is interpreted by some as "resilience" — although prices have not made a strong counterattack, at least they have not become the main battleground of panic in this round.

For professional traders like Doctor Profit, this resilience forms the core premise for his counter-cyclical dollar-cost averaging: acknowledging that the overall market may still have downward space while choosing to place positions in a phased manner on assets like BTC and ETH that have not declined as severely, with narratives that are more mature. However, it’s important to emphasize that current public materials have not provided specific drop percentages, transaction volumes, or more detailed on-chain quantitative data for BTC/ETH, and the judgment of "resilience" mainly comes from relative price performance and the subjective statements of traders. In the absence of complete data, a more conservative interpretation is that in this round of adjustments, market focus and narratives are gradually shifting from the wildly fluctuating AI sector back to mainstream assets like BTC/ETH, and this "strength-weakness switch" still has considerable observation space before confirming a bottom.

Who is Panicking Out, and Who is Quietly Entering?

Putting these three lines of clues together: on one side, the whale address bc1qyr, despite suffering over 20 million dollars in unrealized losses, still deposited 625 BTC into FalconX, raising speculation about potential sell pressure; on the other side, the ESP bull, regarded as "smart money," has incurred losses of over 2.4 million dollars in the past three days, with its BTC long position suffering approximately 4.05 million dollars in unrealized losses, exemplifying typical professional longs under passive pressure; and on the other side is Doctor Profit, who, after taking profits on his short position on July 18, has turned to dollar-cost averaging into BTC and ETH, opting to accumulate against the trend. This resembles an emotional clearing: some are panicking out while others are entering with a longer-term mindset. However, what it reveals now is a repricing of positions and psychology, rather than a confirmed absolute bottom signal. Moving forward, what deserves more attention is whether bc1qyr will continue large inflows and outflows, whether ESP bull will be forced to significantly adjust positions, and whether more leading traders will publicly shift to increasing their holdings in BTC/ETH — only when these behaviors resonate clearly on-chain and in public information can the market have a chance to delineate a relatively credible localized bottom for this round of adjustments.

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