Weekly Editor's Picks (0606-0612)

The information flow is too fast, and in-depth analysis articles are easily drowned out by trends. The "Weekly Editor's Picks" column extracts these judgment-worthy contents from the massive information, helping you filter out the noise, leaving behind insights and inspiration.

Macro Situation

Ray Dalio: The "Tribute System" led by China is re-emerging, and the AI industry will develop like the electric vehicle industry.

There are risks to the value of currency. The credibility of the United States, as a global power willing to fight for its own interests, is declining. Countries acknowledge and respect China's powerful strength, but this system is not oppressive or controlling.

China focuses more on "using AI to promote various developments" and is committed to finding the next industry where it can gain a dominant position. The robotics technology track can basically be viewed as China's next-generation electric vehicle industry.

J.P. Morgan Mid-Year Outlook: The AI narrative has not peaked, reduce cash holdings and allocate more to physical assets.

J.P. Morgan believes that the three major global risks (fragmentation, inflation, AI disruption) are being overly pessimistically priced by the market, and the current turbulence is precisely the entry window.

The overall judgment is: continue to bet on the AI supercycle and U.S. stocks, hedge against inflation with physical assets and alternative strategies, reduce cash holdings, and pay attention to emerging markets.

How far is this round of U.S. stock market bull run compared to historical bubble peaks?

Goldman Sachs' Chief U.S. Stock Strategist's latest assessment shows that the current market exuberance has risen to the historical 86th percentile, approaching but not yet reaching the extreme levels seen at the peaks of the 2000 internet bubble and the 2021 bull market.

For the market, this judgment means that the current bull market still has space, but risks are accumulating.

Snider clearly stated, "We are not there yet," while warning that the market does not need to wait for extreme investor exuberance before declines happen, and historical patterns may not necessarily repeat in this cycle.

Korean stocks plunge, global funds clear out: Has the semiconductor fundamentals really changed?

Last Friday, the global semiconductor sector experienced a heavy pullback, triggering a circuit breaker for Korean stocks on Monday, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix leading the market decline.

However, after the plunge over the weekend, Jensen Huang made a high-profile visit to South Korea and reinforced cooperation with the Korean AI supply chain, leading the market to reevaluate whether this is the peak of the AI cycle or just a crowded trade clearing out.

Related targets: 000660.KS (Korean stock), 005930.KS (Korean stock), NVDA (U.S. stock), MU (U.S. stock), AVGO (U.S. stock), EWY (Korean ETF), SOXX (U.S. stock ETF).

South Korea has become one of the most sensitive markets for global AI trading, determined by overseas variables.

Investment and Entrepreneurship

The largest IPO in history is coming, what SpaceX subscription channels are available for retail investors?

From IPO subscription activities launched by CEX to Pre-IPO equity tokens, and various pre-market contract products, different types of investors are competing for this "ticket" to SpaceX through different means.

An increasingly rich participation channel is giving more people the opportunity to join this capital feast in advance.

For beginners, choosing to wait until SpaceX officially lists before deciding whether to participate is also a reasonable choice.

Why is there such a large price difference among SpaceX pre-market contracts from various exchanges?

Whether it is Binance, OKX, Bitget, or Hyperliquid, the SPCX listed currently is not the actual stock of SpaceX but a derivative designed around the future IPO price.

These products will eventually be settled based on the market value and share capital data after SpaceX's IPO, so their prices essentially reflect the market's expectations for SpaceX's final valuation, and since SpaceX is not yet listed, these expected prices have no definite anchor standard. This uncertainty is the source of the price difference game in the current market.

Although the best arbitrage window may have passed; for ordinary investors, this price game surrounding SPCX provides an excellent sample for observing the logic of pre-market market operations.

SpaceX IPO First Day Strategy: Don’t treat it like an ordinary hot stock

The first day of the SpaceX IPO belongs to traders; long-term judgments will wait for supply testing. For traders, the first day may be the “Super Bowl” of order flow trading; for investors, the fluctuations on the first day should not be overly interpreted.

In this sense, the core issue of the SpaceX IPO is no longer whether to buy on the first day but rather whether participants can first judge which game they are entering: look at order flow on the first day, focus on supply absorption capacity in the long term. Mixing these two is the reason why most retail investors easily lose money.

BTC sideways ≠ industry recession, Ansem: Three undervalued crypto tailwinds to watch

The issues Bitcoin is facing now are due to the "Ponzi-like" tendency brought by Saylor's operations, which is temporary. Before this issue is resolved, BTC will not see significant upward trends again.

Furthermore, concerns about quantum computing are real.

These two points, along with liquidity from institutional exits, are the reasons why BTC old players are reducing their excess liquidity risk.

With AI models making exponential improvements in the coming years, there are three undervalued crypto tailwind factors: 1) open-source AI will become more competitive with closed-source AI; 2) small teams building successful startups will become easier; and 3) stablecoins and blockchain provide a better infrastructure for AI agents to trade.

Leverage clearance, lack of buy-side: Bitcoin is still waiting in "the last drop."

Over 95% of short-term holders are in a state of loss, with the profit margin for short-term holders only slightly recovering to 3.3%, far below the four-year average of 55%. The market fundamentals are weak and highly susceptible to external shocks.

Institutional demand in the U.S. has significantly cooled, and the pace of Bitcoin accumulation by corporate treasuries has slowed significantly, as the two major support forces exit the market. After Bitcoin fell below a key support level, the market ushered in a large-scale deleveraging trend, with a concentrated liquidation of leverage long positions, clearing excessive speculative positions from the market.

Market transactions are mainly defensive operations, with the largest negative gamma exposure concentrated around $65,000, which is not far from the current spot price.

Business Profile on "White-haired Stock God" Serenity: A mental remedy for anxious retail investors

Serenity's investment characteristic is to select those underpriced small monopoly firms in the AI industry chain according to the "Chokepoint Investment Method." His calls for over 16 stocks have returned more than 100% this year, and his personal return rate for this year has exceeded 3612%. Combined with his professional background as a former AI research scientist and rigorous analysis of the AI industry and promising companies, Serenity has accumulated a large number of loyal retail fanatics in Japan, Europe, and the U.S., with his subscription count on X exceeding Musk, ranking first on the platform.

Serenity's anonymity, non-transparent investment returns, and excessive desire for influence are increasing the controversies surrounding him. However, interestingly, all those questioning him are constantly refreshing his homepage.

The bull market amplifies returns, but it also amplifies faith. As more and more people start making money, we always want to find someone who can "scientifically explain the bubble." Serenity may just be an outward projection of the sentiment in this round of AI bull market: mysterious, professional, and successful, fitting the public's entire imagination of a "Stock God."

But beside the altar is the guillotine, for when the tide turns, the market will again look for someone to hold accountable for the losses, and at that time Serenity may also be the best candidate.

Web3 & AI

When LP teaches me investment with beans: A private equity GP's career transition story

Small private equity fund fundraising is already difficult, and with the popularization of AI, many LPs would rather let beans assist in stock trading than raise funds for GPs. As AI tools become more common, the information processing and research capabilities that previously relied heavily on professional institutions are being rapidly equalized.

Aside from the final stages of capital allocation and trade execution, many tasks within the traditional GP functions are starting to be replaced by AI in a more cost-effective and efficient manner.

Interviewed GPs believe: AI is always neutral and can be used by everyone; it is a lever that GPs can use to improve their knowledge systems and investment strategies, creating more returns for LPs. However, AI has increased friction between GPs and LPs.

Prediction Market

CFTC to establish new prediction market regulations, redefining which events can be traded and who can participate

On June 10, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced a proposed rule designed to adjust how event contracts are reviewed. The CFTC aims to establish a framework for determining which events can be financialized and which should be kept out of the market. Sports prediction events are likely to be retained with clearer boundaries. Insider trading and manipulation risks are the real issues this round of regulation seeks to address.

CeFi & DeFi

Saylor bought 1550 BTC, yet it was the worst trade for Strategy in recent times

This transaction reveals that Strategy chose to sacrifice the number of Bitcoin holdings per share in MSTR for the development of STRC, which is akin to a gamble.

If sacrificing MSTR leads to improved market sentiment, a stabilization in STRC's price, and prompts corrected asset net value back to a reasonable range, the company can continue fundraising through timely stock issuance channels from both MSTR and STRC, allowing the entire system to operate healthily.

But once market sentiment fails to improve, the situation will take a nosedive. At that point, Strategy may only continue to sacrifice MSTR's interests to survive. The worst-case scenario will follow, with the company having to either delay distributing STRC dividends or gradually head toward decline amidst internal strife.

If Hyperliquid is the new Nasdaq, which projects are acting as brokerages?

If it's assumed that Hyperliquid becomes the new generation of Nasdaq, then applications built on Hyperliquid, responsible for directly connecting with users and optimizing the trading experience, will no longer just be front-ends but will resemble traditional financial "brokerages."

In analogy to the traditional stock market, retail investors do not directly trade on Nasdaq or the NYSE; instead, the platforms that truly build relationships with users are often brokerages like Robinhood, Interactive Brokers, and Charles Schwab—exchanges are responsible for providing the underlying market, liquidity, and matching capabilities; brokerages handle user access, product design, and experience optimization.

Currently, the most direct income sources for these "brokerage" projects remain commission shares and the appreciation expectations of HYPE.

Representative projects include: Trade.xyz, which brings U.S. stocks, commodities, and indexes into Hyperliquid; Dreamcash, the mobile traffic captor; Ventuals, a pioneer in the Pre-IPO market; Based, a future "super application"; and Minara AI, which is positioning itself for "Agents starting to become users."

The open combination and increasingly strong network adhesive effect contribute to Hyperliquid's strongest moat.

Airdrop Opportunities and Interaction Guide

Meme

Binance Life hits a new high again, but the Meme craze has become a thing of the past

Bitcoin

BIP-110 controversy heats up: Bitcoin may face the most divisive hard fork battle in years

The Bitcoin block height is about to reach 961632, at which point the BIP-110 proposal may restrict non-financial data within transactions.

Supporters of the proposal claim that this adjustment can return Bitcoin to its core settlement function, alleviating the network burden caused by inscriptions and other applications that take up large amounts of on-chain data. Critics warn that the low voting threshold for miners and the accompanying enforcement mechanisms could likely lead to a split in the main chain, forcing exchanges and node operators to adopt defensive measures.

Ethereum and Scaling

From Ethereum to AI's "CROPS": What is this "slow variable" that Vitalik emphasizes again and again?

In the context of EF Mandate, CROPS primarily points to five directions, which are also the acronyms of its keywords: Censorship Resistance, Capture Resistance (this one was actually added by Vitalik later), Open Source, Privacy, Security, which refer to anti-censorship, anti-capture, open source, privacy, and security.

At this historical transitional phase for Ethereum, CROPS is not an abstract slogan of "ideas prioritizing reality," but more like a definition and constraint from the outside on what EF should and should not do.

This Week's Hot Highlights

Policy and Macro Market

The State Council: Strictly prohibit private equity funds from engaging in illegal lending and "name the stock but use it as debt";

SBF formally applies for a pardon from Trump;

Trump's 38th statement of "agreement soon to be reached" brings a TACO-style surge to global stock markets;

SpaceX's IPO reportedly received several times over-subscription;

SpaceX's century IPO, but large on-chain new issues experienced major failures;

Opinions and Voices

"White-haired Stock God" Serenity: optimistic about long-term opportunities in Chinese stocks, foreign investors' perspective may be underrated by the market; The essence of liquidity cycle in U.S. stocks is the transfer from retail to institutions, negative research reports may signal institutions' accumulation;

Jensen Huang: The time is very close to realizing industrial robotization;

Micron CEO interview: "Storage" is the neglected bottleneck for AI; supply tightness may continue until after 2026;

Opinions: Valuations of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are overheated, the market has overdrafted future growth in advance;

Strategy CEO: Selling Bitcoin is to test market response and internal processes;

Tom Lee: SpaceX's century IPO is the real culprit for U.S. stock weakness; post-listing, it is expected to drive market repair;

BTC to see $10,000? DWF co-founder indicated that BitMine and Strategy are likely to cause the largest market crash in crypto history;

10x Research: The main reason for Bitcoin's decline is not Strategy, but inflation and ETF outflows;

Trader Eugene: Temporarily exiting the crypto market, currently sees no worthwhile opportunities to participate;

Arthur Hayes: The AI bubble is close to bursting, the crypto market faces short-term pressure;

Dragonfly Partner: The Zcash vulnerability incident is being over interpreted by the market, most holders will not be affected;

Institutions, Large Corporations, and Leading Projects

OpenAI disclosed that it has secretly submitted an IPO application;

Mastercard launched AI payment protocol "Agent Pay for AI," allowing AI agents to conduct direct payments;

Hyperliquid's pre-market contracts stirred controversy;

Data

Recapitulation of SpaceX stock pre-market arbitrage: Capital stock differences among platforms once created a 10% arbitrage opportunity;

In two months, a 20-fold increase, "1011 insider giant whale" agent Garrett Jin may be controlling Binance Life;

Security

Humanity was stolen over $31 million……

Attached is the series portal for "Weekly Editor's Picks." See you next time~

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。